961
FXUS61 KPBZ 060536
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
136 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After isolated lingering showers exit early this morning, dry
weather returns Saturday through Monday with temperature rising
well above normal by Monday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower and thunderstorm activity will become more widespread
  tonight, with a still-present risk of localized flash
  flooding. The risk of damaging wind gusts remains low.

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Earlier strong storms, currently still south and west of
Pittsburgh, have weakened considerably as they have crossed
into the CWA, as they entered an area more hostile to convective
maintenance. Rain rates have slackened as activity has become
more stratiform in nature, and only a few cloud flashes have
been observed recently. Adjusted near-term PoPs for radar
trends. Much of this activity will lift off to the northeast by
midnight.

As a shortwave trough crosses overnight, there may be an uptick
of precipitation once again. This is already occurring to some
degree upstream in southern Ohio. A few thunderstorms remain
possible, tapping into elevated instability. However, any severe
risk has largely ended for the night with the loss of daytime
heating. Flash flooding cannot be totally ruled out as high PWAT
persists, but strong enough steering flow and relatively dry
antecedent conditions should keep risk low. Passage of a surface
trough and upper wave will diminish precipitation chances west
to east and offer a slight reprieve from the warm, muggy
conditions by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and more seasonable weather returns on Saturday.
- Rising temperature likely through Monday as dry weather
  persists.

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Drier southwest flow and ridging at the surface will support dry
weather Saturday. Lingering morning stratus clouds are expected
to break up with a scattered to broken cumulus field developing
in the late morning to early afternoon; weak cool advection plus
the cloud cover should aid temperature returning to more
seasonal values. More notably for some, drier air will mix to
the surface and bring relief to the region from the multiple day
experience of humid conditions.

Return flow as high pressure settles over the Atlantic will
support rising temperature Sunday into Monday as the next upper
trough system develops over the Central Plains. Heat risk
concerns return as a result, though probabilities of seeing heat
indices above advisory criteria remain low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High probability for dry weather and slightly above average
  temperature the rest of the weekend.
- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through at least mid-week.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
lifting through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead of the
wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment translating
to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the feature.
Environmental conditions remain varied, but with ensemble means
showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there appears to be at
least a low probability for flash flood risk and potential other
severe hazards.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The main takeaways
for the long range period is that 500mb mean heights suggest a
continuation of near to above normal temperature and
precipitation chances tied to shortwave movement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Confidence in widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings has decreased as
clouds continue to clear from west to east across the area. As a
result, have pushed back onset of cig restrictions, which will
likely be fairly brief (around 6 hours). IFR is most likely at
FKL/DUJ/MGW, with MVFR or low VFR expected elsewhere. Early
clearing may also promote more fog coverage than previously
expected, but confidence in this is low. Fog remains most likely
at ZZV and MGW.

Return to VFR is expected by 15z with diurnal heating and
building high pressure. Westerly winds will gust to near 20kts
during the afternoon.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions should persist into Sunday under high pressure.
The next chance for widespread restrictions will be with our
next system Tuesday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier/CL
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Rackley/88