221
FXUS61 KPBZ 071729
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
129 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather
returns midweek, associated with a passing trough and the
remnants of Beryl.

Monday through Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week
with widespread 90s outside of the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions and mostly seasonable temperatures today.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will result in mainly clear skies with a few
instances of afternoon cu. Temperatures will top out slightly
warmer than Saturday with slight warm advection aloft and
diurnal mixing under abundant sunshine.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions continue.
- Above normal temperatures.
- Fog potential for Monday morning.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

With sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and mostly clear
skies, early morning fog development could occur again
overnight.

Heading into the day on Monday, high pressure positioned off the
east coast will make for southwesterly flow into the southern
counties of the forecast area. A passing trough aloft to the
south may be enough to spawn a few showers or storms into
Preston and Tucker Counties for Monday afternoon. With a noted
590dm heights at 500mb and 850mb temperatures around 20C by
Monday, daytime highs temperatures are expected to range in the
low to mid-90s across the region. A return in moisture and
warmer temperatures will lead to Heat Index values in the mid
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
passing through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead
of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment
translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with
ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there
appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk
and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning
output supports this.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The trend currently
is, the core of the tropical low to lift north into the Great
Lakes by Wednesday. This will likely lead to the main rainfall
threat on Wednesday.

The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean
heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal
temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave
movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time and low
confidence is the take away as the ridge off the coast keeps
the trough and merged remnants of Beryl over the Mid Atlantic a
bit longer keeping low chance pops in the forecast for Thursday
through Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure would keep the area
dry to end the period on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High confidence forecast /90%/. VFR is forecast the duration of
the forecast. The only fly in the ointment would be at FKL
overnight, where IFR fog could develop around sunrise. For now,
left it out with future shifts to monitor. Probabilities for
fog development anywhere are lower than this morning, which
makes sense per a warmer column and dewpoints around 70F.

Cu will pop around 14-15Z like the past few days, however
brought bases lower given more moisture Monday to 4KFT instead
of 5KFT /no operational impact though/. Wind be five knots or
less the duration of the forecast.

.Outlook...
VFR continues Monday night into Tuesday morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday afternoon through
Thursday with brief, related restrictions.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger/88
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley/McMullen