


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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550 FXUS61 KPBZ 290724 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 324 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet and dry weather will finally settle in today, but another active period is forecast for Monday into Tuesday. Patchy dense fog is possible early this morning. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Quiet weather ensues as lingering showers exit. - Dense fog potential increases early this morning. - Mostly dry conditions Sunday. --------------------------------------------------------------- Lingering showers are exiting the area as the front continues to sag southwards and instability wanes. Remaining showers should clear the WV ridges within the next few hours. However, abundant residual moisture, light wind, and some clearing of cloud cover will present optimal conditions for early morning fog. Patchy dense fog will be possible, and we will be monitoring the need for a Dense Fog Advisory or Special Wx Statement. Fog is expected to linger across the area through at least 8 AM. The cold front will stall just south of the Mason-Dixon line today, keeping most showers and storms south of the forecast area. The exception may be a few showers/storms across the WV ridges this afternoon. Temperatures will remain above-normal under increasingly zonal 500mb flow. Most of the region will top out in the mid/upper 80s. Tonight, little change is expected with temperatures dropping into the upper 60s/lower 70s. Patchy fog will again be possible as low-level moisture lingers, though increasing cloud cover should keep this from being widespread. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Storm and heavy rainfall chances return Monday and Tuesday. - Temperatures remain above-average, but below heat advisory criteria. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The front will begin to lift back northward late Sunday night into Monday, with showers likely returning to the area Monday morning. Elevated PWATs with southwesterly flow and plentiful instability will again mean flooding and low-end severe threats are on the table. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall Monday/Monday night, and SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for severe wind. CAMs indicate a more discrete, isolated shower and thunderstorm threat during the afternoon hours, with better organization immediately ahead of a crossing cold front Monday evening into the overnight. Additional convection is expected with frontal passage early Tuesday morning before post-frontal clearing during the day. Northwesterly flow and meager cold advection will keep temperatures closer to seasonal norms Tuesday afternoon and overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - A drier and more seasonable air mass arrives by Wednesday. - A crossing shortwave and cold front may bring low-probability showers on Thursday. - Generally dry, but low probability rain possible Friday and Saturday. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry and more seasonable weather will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds under quasi-zonal flow aloft. A shortwave is expected to cross on Thursday as a cold front sweeps the area. This will introduce lower-end PoPs Thursday afternoon into the overnight. High pressure looks to return Friday into the weekend, with growing probabilities for dry weather and warming temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... With clearing underway and light winds with an abundant amount of remnant moisture near the surface, the potential of fog increases across the region, especially the northern counties as they will clear out first. Fog will be dense at times, reaching LIFR or even VLIFR levels through the early morning and through dawn. Surface heating will likely help improve vis conditions after 12Z, with VFR conditions returning with scattered cumulus. The boundary may stall near the Mason-Dixon Line through Sunday, keeping a few stray showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the area, with MGW having the best chance of seeing impact. For now, Put a PROB30 in for MGW as a thunderstorm can`t fully be ruled out. For the most part, expect light winds through the rest of the TAF period with mainly dry conditions. Cloud cover will be mainly cirrus passing through the area. A chance of fog will be possible again on Sunday night. Outlook... Showers/storms return again Monday as the boundary lifts back north as a warm front. Rain and restriction chances continue into Tuesday, before a cold frontal passage returns VFR conditions for Wednesday and Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rackley NEAR TERM...Rackley SHORT TERM...Rackley LONG TERM...Rackley AVIATION...CL/Shallenberger