040
FXUS63 KPAH 071050 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and seasonably warm conditions will continue into the
  second half of the weekend.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase beginning Monday
  as an upper-level disturbance moves into the region.

- Rainfall chances will become likely for the middle of the week
  as the remnants of Beryl move through the area. Locally heavy
  rain is possible.

- Drying out for the end of the work week, with only a small
  chance of a lingering shower or thunderstorm.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A pleasant Sunday appears likely today with seasonable
temperatures and somewhat lower dewpoints. The main focus of the
forecast centers around Tropical Storm Beryl, an approaching
trough in the northern Plains and the interaction between the
two. Global guidance seems to be trending stronger and more
negatively tilted with the upper trough that ultimately captures
Beryl and sends its remnants to the northeast. The track both
from guidance and NHC has been pretty consistent in moving over
southeast Missouri Tuesday into Wednesday. Shifts in the track
however remain likely and will have implications on our impacts
as of course will the intensity of Beryl as it approaches the
Texas coast.

As a result of the stronger trend in the upper trough the
remnant cyclone looks to get more of a baroclinic enhancement
than it did 24 hours ago as it passes overhead. This results in
better kinematics in the southeastern quadrant from stronger low
level winds. Instability is limited due to poor mid level lapse
rates but there seems to be a little higher risk of severe
weather Tuesday into Wednesday southeast of the cyclone track, with
an axis of heavier rain closer to and just northwest of the
storm track. Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches seem
plausible along the storm track as well. The trick will be of
course where exactly the storm tracks which will decide exactly
who gets what. The probability of advisory level winds looks
higher than it did 24 hours ago as its not hard to visualize
some localized areas of stronger pressure gradient just ahead
and behind the cyclone, although its still probably less than
50 percent.

The stronger trough results in a stronger front sweeping through
which seems to dry us out and lower humidity and temperatures in
the wake of Beryl, which should give us another few relatively
pleasant days before moisture return and humidity picks up on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Patchy ground fog should mix out quickly after sunrise. Light
southeast winds and VFR conditions are forecast today. VFR
conditions are outlooked for tonight as well although ground fog
will need to be considered.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG