258
FXUS63 KPAH 082029
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
329 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The remnants of Beryl will impact the region beginning tonight
  through Wednesday morning.

- Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms (damaging winds and a
  few tornadoes) will be the main Beryl-related hazards for the
  region.

- The region will dry out and warm up for the latter half of the
  week through next weekend, with typical summertime heat and
  humidity returning to the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Tonight...Numerous thunderstorms have already developed across
southeast MO into far west KY this afternoon. These storms are
developing as the outer fringes of Tropical Storm Beryl begin to
interact with a trough over the Central Plains. These storms
have already produced flash flooding in Wayne County, MO, thanks
to PWAT values of 2.1" per the latest RAP analysis.
Additionally, there has been enough 0-3 km CAPE present to allow
for a few funnel clouds and landspout tornadoes to develop over
parts of southeast MO and far southern IL. Have hoisted a
Special Weather Statement to lift awareness of this potential
through 23z. A marginal severe risk with isolated damaging
winds and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible through
late this evening. The latest CAMs show this activity spreading
NE across the northern half of the forecast area tonight
followed by a brief lull in activity during the overnight hours.
Low temperatures will dip into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The remnants of Beryl will pass through
the region during this time, posing both a significant flash
flood and severe risk for much of the area. PWAT values will
surge to 2.0-2.5" inches of the area with very deep warm cloud
layers. Rainfall processes will extremely efficient and rainfall
rate of 1-2" per hour will be possible across much of the area.
The heaviest rains will fall near and just west Beryl`s remnant
circulation, which will include most of southeast MO, southern
IL, far southwest IN, and most of far west and northwest KY.
This is where a Flood Watch will be in effect from late tonight
through late Tuesday night. Areas further to the east will see
less sustained and more scattered shower and storm activity,
which will limit the flooding potential.

Latest WPC QPF still shows a broad broad of 2-4" through late
Tuesday night over the watch area. However, concern is growing
that a small corridor higher amounts (potentially 4-6" or more)
will fall somewhere in the Flood Watch area. This would lead to
considerable flash flooding if realized. Very concerned about
campgrounds along flash-flood prone streams and creeks in and
near the Ozark Foothills. Made sure to include a special mention
of that hazard in the Flood Watch update.

The other hazard tomorrow will be the severe potential,
especially over western KY, southwest IN, the MO Bootheel, and
southeast IL. SPC has introduced a Slight Risk for this area
with the latest Day 2 outlook. The highly-sheared environment
combined with at least modest destabilization will allow for
scattered low-topped supercells and linear features with
mesovortex elements to develop early Tuesday afternoon near the
OH/MS River confluence and race to the northeast. A few
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazards.
Depending on the exact path Beryl`s circulation will take, the
severe corridor may still shift a bit west or east.

By Wednesday morning, the rainfall will exit the region from
southwest to northeast as the remnant low exits the region. This
will bring lowering PoPs and clearing skies during the evening
hours. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s with
the highest values west of the Mississippi River where clouds
will thin first. Gradient winds may gust up to 20-25 mph during
this time, but impacts will be very marginal at most. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the middle to upper
60s.

Thursday through Sunday...A return to more typical midsummer
weather is forecast for the rest of the work week into next
weekend. High pressure will build over the region during this
period, and a warming trend in temperatures will follow. High
temperatures Thursday will reach the middle to upper 80s
Thursday and Friday, followed by highs in the lower to middle
90s this weekend, with heat index values again near 100
degrees. Overnight lows will generally be near seasonal values
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

For the 18z TAFs, isolated convection will continue to develop
across southeast MO this afternoon into early this evening. Some
of this activity may reach the vicinity of CGI, PAH, and EVV at
times before coverage wanes overnight. However, widespread
showers with embedded convection associated the the remnants of
Beryl will spread from SW to NE across the area Tuesday morning.

Rain will reduce vsbys to MVFR levels with cigs lowering to
MVFR as well at CGI, PAH, and MVN. Briefly lower vsby and cig
restrictions are possible under heavier thunderstorm activity.

S to SW winds at 6-10 kts will become light and variable
overnight. Winds will shift to the NE at 5-10 kts at CGI and
PAH Tuesday morning, while remaining variable at MVN, EVV, and
OWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
     for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
     for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
     for INZ081-085-086.
KY...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning
     for KYZ001>008-010-014-018.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS