Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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728 FXUS63 KPAH 031954 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight and again late Thursday night (Independence Day). Damaging winds will be the main threat. - The thunderstorms will produce heavy rain, and areas of flash flooding are possible across parts of southeast MO into southwest IL. A Flood Watch has been issues for these areas from tonight through late Thursday night. - Sultry heat and humidity will continue through early tonight for much of the area, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM CDT. Another Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of the area on Thursday as well. - Drying out with less hot and humid conditions this weekend. The next chance the thunderstorms arrives early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Complex mesoscale setup for the forecast for the rest of the day. Satellite imagery shows an outflow boundary extending from just south of CGI to PAH to EHR with robust CU development and a couple of thunderstorms firing south of the this feature. Further north is still recovering from morning debris clouds and showers, with CU development still suppressed. Expect that as a cold front approaches from the northwest, storms will fire and grow upscale into clusters and bowing segments in the very unstable (SBCAPE is round 3000-5000 J/kg) but modestly sheared (effective bulk shear values are 25-40 kts). The primary severe hazards will be from damaging winds as updrafts collapse and gust out. The other concern will be for possible flooding. PWATs remain very elevated around 2.0-2.1", and there is a good chance that storms that develop will train from west to east along the cold front or outflow boundaries. This could lead to several inches of rain falling in a short amount of time. Right now, the great risk of flash flooding looks to be across east-central MO into southeast MO and southwest IL. Collaborated with WFOs Springfield and St. Louis on a Flood Watch that will begin at 00z Thursday and run through 06z Friday due to the potential for additional rounds of rain Thursday morning and again late Thursday night. Depending on how the storms evolve, an expansion of the Flood Watch may be needed. The final notable story today is the heat. The advertised sticky dew point temperatures have arrived, and most areas are seeing values in the middle to upper 70s (a few spots are even over 80 degrees!). Combined with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, nearly every station in the ongoing Heat Advisory has reached criteria. Planning to let the Heat Advisory expire as scheduled at 01z Thursday. Looking ahead to Independence Day on Thursday, depending cloud and lingering rain shower coverage, some areas near the AR/TN borders may need another Heat Advisory for the afternoon hours. Either way, it will be a warm and extremely muggy Fourth of July, with dew point temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s forecast during the afternoon hours, along with high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s in most locations. After tonight`s storms, expecting additional non-severe showers and thunderstorm to persist through the morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday as the frontal boundary becomes stalled across the region. However, a period of dry conditions is looking more likely as we go into the mid to late afternoon and evening hours, especially across southwest IN and west KY. Further west, the precipitation will be isolated to widely scattered. This may allow most firework displays to proceed without too much trouble (except for high humidity and muddy viewing areas). However, another round of thunderstorms looks to develop across the Ozarks late Thursday night, which will grow into an MCS as it moves through our region late Thursday night into Friday morning. This activity should be in a weakening mode as it arrives, but a few damaging wind gusts are possible, especially near and west of the Mississippi River. SPC has a Day 2 Slight Risk here, and that looks good right now. Friday will see the lingering precipitation slowly shift south and east of the region as cold front slowly clears the forecast area. In its wake, cooler and less humid conditions will arrive, setting the stage for a pretty nice weekend. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will reach the middle to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive late Sunday night into Monday as shortwave trough moves into the Central Plains. This feature may try to draw some tropical moisture northward into our region as we get into the middle of next week, but confidence remains low at this time. Temperature and humidity levels will begin to draw upward again Monday and Tuesday, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew point temperatures near the 70 degree mark. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will increase in coverage late this afternoon through tonight as a cold front moves into the region. Cloud coverage will increase with lowering bases (mainly low VFR bases with brief MVFR conditions) as well. The TAFs include periods of VCTS/VCSH and TEMPO groups with TSRA at all terminals for lower vsbys and cigs. SW winds of 8-12 kts gusting up to 20 kts will become light and variable beginning tonight, with higher gusts possible under thunderstorm activity. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ077-078-083- 086>094. Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Thursday night for ILZ080-084. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ086-087-100- 107>112-114. Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through late Thursday night for MOZ076-086-087-100. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /9 PM EDT/ this evening for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>022. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS