Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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613 FXUS63 KPAH 040535 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight and again late Thursday night (Independence Day). Damaging winds will be the main threat. - The thunderstorms will produce heavy rain, and areas of flash flooding are possible across parts of southeast MO into southwest IL. A Flood Watch has been issues for these areas from tonight through late Thursday night. - Sultry heat and humidity will continue through early tonight for much of the area, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 PM CDT. Another Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of the area on Thursday as well. - Drying out with less hot and humid conditions this weekend. The next chance the thunderstorms arrives early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Complex mesoscale setup for the forecast for the rest of the day. Satellite imagery shows an outflow boundary extending from just south of CGI to PAH to EHR with robust CU development and a couple of thunderstorms firing south of the this feature. Further north is still recovering from morning debris clouds and showers, with CU development still suppressed. Expect that as a cold front approaches from the northwest, storms will fire and grow upscale into clusters and bowing segments in the very unstable (SBCAPE is round 3000-5000 J/kg) but modestly sheared (effective bulk shear values are 25-40 kts). The primary severe hazards will be from damaging winds as updrafts collapse and gust out. The other concern will be for possible flooding. PWATs remain very elevated around 2.0-2.1", and there is a good chance that storms that develop will train from west to east along the cold front or outflow boundaries. This could lead to several inches of rain falling in a short amount of time. Right now, the great risk of flash flooding looks to be across east-central MO into southeast MO and southwest IL. Collaborated with WFOs Springfield and St. Louis on a Flood Watch that will begin at 00z Thursday and run through 06z Friday due to the potential for additional rounds of rain Thursday morning and again late Thursday night. Depending on how the storms evolve, an expansion of the Flood Watch may be needed. The final notable story today is the heat. The advertised sticky dew point temperatures have arrived, and most areas are seeing values in the middle to upper 70s (a few spots are even over 80 degrees!). Combined with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, nearly every station in the ongoing Heat Advisory has reached criteria. Planning to let the Heat Advisory expire as scheduled at 01z Thursday. Looking ahead to Independence Day on Thursday, depending cloud and lingering rain shower coverage, some areas near the AR/TN borders may need another Heat Advisory for the afternoon hours. Either way, it will be a warm and extremely muggy Fourth of July, with dew point temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s forecast during the afternoon hours, along with high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s in most locations. After tonight`s storms, expecting additional non-severe showers and thunderstorm to persist through the morning and early afternoon hours on Thursday as the frontal boundary becomes stalled across the region. However, a period of dry conditions is looking more likely as we go into the mid to late afternoon and evening hours, especially across southwest IN and west KY. Further west, the precipitation will be isolated to widely scattered. This may allow most firework displays to proceed without too much trouble (except for high humidity and muddy viewing areas). However, another round of thunderstorms looks to develop across the Ozarks late Thursday night, which will grow into an MCS as it moves through our region late Thursday night into Friday morning. This activity should be in a weakening mode as it arrives, but a few damaging wind gusts are possible, especially near and west of the Mississippi River. SPC has a Day 2 Slight Risk here, and that looks good right now. Friday will see the lingering precipitation slowly shift south and east of the region as cold front slowly clears the forecast area. In its wake, cooler and less humid conditions will arrive, setting the stage for a pretty nice weekend. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will reach the middle to upper 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms will arrive late Sunday night into Monday as shortwave trough moves into the Central Plains. This feature may try to draw some tropical moisture northward into our region as we get into the middle of next week, but confidence remains low at this time. Temperature and humidity levels will begin to draw upward again Monday and Tuesday, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dew point temperatures near the 70 degree mark. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Shower and storm activity has trended lighter across the area though remains, mainly in the Kentucky Pennyrile. Fog development is possible in the north, particularly at climatologically favored sites. The next round of showers and storms moves through in the morning, mainly as a line sweeping through while training showers are looking likely to be north of the I-64 corridor. A period of less shower coverage for the afternoon and early evening gives way to another round of storms entering late evening and continuing into the overnight hours. MVFR cigs are more likely during the day in the north but are possible at times in the south. Fairly calm winds through the overnight hours increase to 6-10 kts out of the southwest during the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ080-084. MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ076-086-087-100. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...ATL DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...ATL