Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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981 FXUS63 KPAH 071940 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The remnants of Beryl will impact the region beginning late Monday through Wednesday night. - Tropical rains will be heavy at times, especially across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This could lead to some flooding issues developing. - A few severe storms will be possible as well late Monday and again Tuesday afternoon. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be the primary hazards. - Drying out and warming up back to typical mid-summer heat and humidity for the end of the work week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Tonight...High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is bringing one last quiet day to the region. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dew point temperatures have crept into the middle to upper 60s in most areas as southerly return flow gradually ramps up. Overnight lows tonight will fall into the middle to upper 60s under increasing high cirrus cloud cover. Monday through Wednesday...The first half of the week will be active as the remnants of tropical system Beryl move through the region. The latest NHC forecast shows Beryl making landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast Monday morning, then turning north and eventually northeast. The system will become extratropical as it interacts with a upper-level trough that will move into the central and northern Great Plains. Most model guidance brings the center of circulation near or a bit south of STL Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The system looks to be well northeast of the region by Wednesday night. Weather conditions will become more unsettled during the course of the day Monday as Beryl`s remnants begin to interact with the upper- level trough. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon, mainly near and west of the Mississippi River. Cannot rule of an isolated strong to severe storm here as well as the atmosphere will be quite unstable with increasing southwesterly sheared flow from the approaching trough. Damaging winds look to be the main threat during this time. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s, with a few spots across southwest IN and the KY Pennyrile topping out in the the lower 90s. Humidity will be very noticeable as well, with dew point temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 70s during the day. Overnight lows Monday night will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The bulk of the heavy rain from Beryl`s remnants looks to fall Monday night through Tuesday night. As is typical with tropical systems, PWAT values will be very elevated along with very deep warm cloud layers. This will allow for very efficient rainfall production. Latest QPF from WPC is still showing a broad brush of 1-3" of rain from east to west over the region, respectively. However, confidence remains low in the placement of the heaviest rain axis. Would not be surprised to see one or two more wobbles in the heavy rain placement between now and Monday night. If confidence in the rainfall placement and intensity becomes higher, a Flood Watch may be needed for some parts of the area during the Mon PM to Tue PM period. Beyond the flooding risk, concern is growing for the severe thunderstorm potential on Tuesday afternoon. As the center of Beryl`s circulation passes to our NW, a warm frontal boundary will lift north into west KY, southern IL, and southwest IN. Surface flow will be backed to the ESE south of the boundary, resulting in an extremely sheared environment. There will likely be some breaks in the cloud cover during the afternoon hours, allowing for destabilization. Depending on the model, MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg will develop in this area, with storms initiating in the afternoon hours and trekking northeast. Similar setups in the past have produced tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. For example, on Sept. 8, 2018, the remnants of T.S. Gordon produced flash flooding across southern IL and four weak tornadoes in the Owensboro area. SPC has most of the forecast area outlooked for a marginal risk for Tuesday, and would not be surprised if the severe outlook is raised with later updates if the forecast remains unchanged. Outside of the severe and flooding risks, temperatures will vary greatly from west to east due to the cloud and precipitation coverage. Highs in the Ozark Foothills will only reach the middle to upper 70s, while parts of southwest IN and KY Pennyrile will reach upper 80s. Additionally, gradient winds will be breezy at times, though not particularly impactful. Gusts may reach 20-25 mph at most. By Wednesday, Beryl`s remnant circulation will be moving away to our northeast. This will bring a drying trend as we go into the afternoon. Cloud cover will still be plentiful, so high temperatures will be limited to the upper 70s and lower 80s in most areas. Low temperatures Wednesday will fall into the middle to upper 60s under clearing skies. Thursday through Saturday...A return to weakly anticyclonic mid-level flow and surface high pressure edging eastward into the Midwest will bring a return of quiet weather for the end of the work week into the first half of next weekend. High temperatures will rebound into the middle and upper 80s on Thursday, the upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, and the lower 90s by Saturday. With dew point temperatures returning to the lower 70s by Saturday, some areas will see triple digit heat index values during the heat of the day as well. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will continue for the 18z TAF issuance. Fair weather CU with bases AOA 5kft will develop over the terminals through this afternoon, before diminishing tonight under passing high cirrus. Additional CU will develop Monday morning beginning around 15-16z under thickening high cirrus decks. Light E-SE winds will become light and variable tonight, then pick up from the S-SSW after daybreak Monday AOA 5 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS