Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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860 FXUS63 KPAH 061105 AAA AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 605 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier and more pleasant weather this weekend. - Scattered showers/storms may turn more widespread and numerous Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall coverage/amounts will be dependent on the strength and track of Tropical Storm Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 We look to stay north of a cold front through the weekend with somewhat cooler temperatures and much lower humidity. Moisture return begins on Monday as an approaching trough lifts the front back to the north. Modest instability builds in by the afternoon and scattered showers and storms will likely make an appearance. After that the forecast largely depends on the fate of Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico. There has been a consistent trend in guidance of the storm moving a little further north than previously thought as it gets captured by and approaching shortwave trough. The 00z guidance suite tracks it pretty much completely over the area. The Yucatan Peninsula appears to have done quite a number on the storm that has seemed nearly invincible along its track up tot his point and its track and our impacts will depend largely on if and how much the storm can reorganize. NWS NHC has the storm moving into southeast Texas as a hurricane but warns they are concerned about rapid intensification if the storm can reestablish a central core. The modest upper ascent northeast of an approaching cyclone fits the pattern for a Precursor Rainfall Event which would result in decent mostly stratiform rain Tuesday and then the storms core moving overhead Wednesday. What I think is reasonably likely is Tuesday and Wednesday where you would want an umbrella handy. Then the ultimate strength of the storm will determine how much rain we see and if the storm ends up strong enough to bring some wind-related impact although that really appears pretty unlikely right now. The storm does however leave a snail trail of 70+ degree dewpoints in its wake as tropical cyclones often do which keep shower and storm chances in the forecast through the week along with uncomfortably muggy conditions. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Passing high clouds will be the only sky impediment today with VFR conditions forecast. Winds will be light out of the north becoming essentially calm once again after sunset. Moisture profiles currently appear too dry for fog formation tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG