857
FXUS64 KOUN 071830
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Round one is just about done, as storms continue to move across
the far southeastern third of our forecast area. In the past 12
hours, widespread rains have occurred in Oklahoma, with nearly 6
inches of rainfall in Kingfisher County. Unfortunately, our Texas
counties have been shut out so far, but this event isn`t over by
any means.

To say the pattern is complicated might be in insult to the word
complicated. First, the MCS continues to push an outflow boundary
from Wichita Falls to Durant (at 18Z). There is an elevated
frontal boundary noted on satellite and observations from El Reno
to Guymon, which will likely be a big player in additional
thunderstorm development. Between these boundaries, there is a
mix of sunshine and cloud cover, but a lot of SW Oklahoma and
western north Texas are under clear skies. In these clear skies,
temperatures are in the 80s and 90s...and the dewpoints are near
or above 70.

Additional thunderstorms are already attempting to develop on the
intersection of the boundary and deferential heating boundary
around Union City to Binger (1825Z). CAMS are on board with these
thunderstorms moving a bit to the south and increasing in
coverage and intensity during the afternoon and evening hours.
Forecast CAPE and shear values will be sufficient for supercell
features in storms that are able to develop, with large hail and
gusty thunderstorm winds being the primary hazards.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain through Monday night and
Tuesday, as Beryl tracks in to the Arklatex. However, the
northern and northwestern sections of our forecast area will be
dry, as the tropical moisture stays south and east.

Afterwards, the atmosphere returns to its normal state, with
scattered clouds during the day and temperatures warming back into
the low-mid 90s...where they should be for this time of year.

Fox

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A complex of thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma will
continue to move to the southeast this afternoon and will likely
affect KDUA within the next 1 to 2 hours with at least some
gusty/variable winds from thunderstorm outflow.

Additional thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon into the
evening with the highest probabilities from KCSM to KLAW to
KOKC/KOUN, where TEMPOs were included. Gusty, variable winds and
brief reductions in visibilities are possible with any
thunderstorms. There is the chance of additional redevelopment
overnight (PROB30s were included to account for this). Lower
ceilings are also expected overnight/toward sunrise tomorrow. MVFR
ceilings were included for now, but there is the chance some
terminals may experience IFR ceilings.

Winds this afternoon will generally be from the east-southeast to
southeast. These winds will shift to the north/northeast as a
cold front/wind shift moves through tonight.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  81  66  86 /  80  60  20  10
Hobart OK         65  82  63  89 /  70  70  20  10
Wichita Falls TX  69  86  68  89 /  40  50  10  10
Gage OK           63  80  60  86 /  70  60  10   0
Ponca City OK     66  83  65  86 /  90  50  20  10
Durant OK         70  85  67  88 /  30  70  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ004>031-033>042-
     044>046-050.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10