537
FXUS64 KOUN 080911
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
411 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The advertised High Plains storms have not turned out to be very
widespread. We have had some shower/storm development across west
central Oklahoma into the southeast Texas panhandle, but the
organization of these storms has decreased over the last hour or
so. With this, we have cancelled the Flood Watch early. There
still could be some areas of heavy rain and localized flooding,
but the potential does not look high enough to keep the watch
going.

Through the day, convection is expected to redevelop near and
north of a surface boundary moving slowly through the area as
temperatures warm enough to reduce convective inhibition.
Meanwhile the precipitation shield from Hurricane Beryl currently
moving onshore will spread north across east Texas and likely
extend into or close to the southeastern portion of our forecast
area, although much of the heaviest rain will likely remain to our
east. The precipitation with this system will remain close enough
to our southeastern zones to maintain higher POPs overnight into
Tuesday morning in the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The remnants of Beryl will be pulling away from the area on
Tuesday, but may still be close enough to keep precipitation in
the eastern part of the area on Tuesday. The latest models suggest
that the precipitation will likely have moved east out of the
forecast area by sunset Tuesday evening. With Beryl passing to our
east, we will keep the northerly surface flow across the area
Tuesday and temperatures on the cooler side. But southerly flow
redevelops by Wednesday and the mid-level ridging amplifies across
the western and central U.S. through the week bringing back the
heat and the dry weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Another complex of storms is expected to move into western
Oklahoma and spread east before and around sunrise Monday. This
complex will slowly move south across the Red River by late
morning. Other showers and thunderstorms may form or move into
southeastern Oklahoma during the afternoon. MVFR and VFR
conditions are expected except in some thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  66  85  64 /  50  30  10   0
Hobart OK         81  64  89  64 /  70  20  10   0
Wichita Falls TX  85  68  90  67 /  60  20  10   0
Gage OK           82  61  88  64 /  30  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     85  66  87  64 /  30  30  10   0
Durant OK         84  68  87  67 /  90  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...09