946
FXUS64 KOUN 061854
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
154 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

 - Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding Possible on Sunday

 - At Least Two Rounds of Storms Expected through Monday

 - Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Late tonight and Sunday remains on track to be the main concern in
this forecast, as several things will come come together over
Oklahoma an western north Texas.

Synoptically, there`s a lot going on. For us, the biggest thing is
a beautifully "cool" July day...with temperatures in the 80s and
dewpoints in the 50s. Nice night expected for most of us, although
there may be a stray thunderstorm or two in the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandle that may attempt to creep towards our area, but that
possibility is low (less than 20%).

Otherwise, there is Beryl in the Gulf of Mexico and a disturbance
on the western coast of Mexico. Beryl continues to track
generally northward...and while I could drone on and on about
Beryl`s dynamics...the main concern for us is the influx of midlevel
moisture. The unnamed disturbance in the Mexican state of Sonora
is also acting as a moisture source for us in the mid and high
levels, and this moisture is streaming to the northeast. Both of
these features are easily diagnosed on the water vapor satellite
channels.

As the Sonoran disturbance moves northeast...and Beryl moves
north, our total available moisture will go from a PW (preciptable
water) of 1.07" on this morning`s OUN 12Z sounding...to a
forecast amount of over 2" of PW in central and northern Oklahoma
Sunday afternoon. Surface dewpoints are expected to also jump to
around 70 by 12Z Sunday as well. Safe to say that the moisture
will be available, and all we need would be additional lift.

Lift is expected to come from a couple of places. First, expect to
see a MCS develop over the high plains of Kansas/Colorado after
midnight and then make a run from NW to SE across our area through
Noon Sunday. This will bring rain and gusty winds thundrestorm
winds. Then, while minor waves move northeast from Mexico, an
upper level trough will swing through the southern plains Sunday
afternoon, providing the necessary (and stronger) lift for
additional thunderstorms to develop.

This secondary batch of storms is expected to be the strongest,
with embedded supercell thunderstorms possible during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. This will bring a QLCS threat,
a potential for severe hail, and heavy rainfall and flooding.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Once we get past Sunday, things won`t necessarily be quiet, but
at least the remainder of the week will have fewer forecasting
headaches. Rain will begin to end late Sunday and early Monday,
and Monday`s high temperatures may struggle to get out of the 70s
the southern portion of Oklahoma/north Texas. Otherwise, highs in
the 80s for early July can`t be beat. Normal or slightly below
normal temperatures are expected for the rest of the work week,
with highs finally rising to the lower 90s by Friday.

Fox

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions will continue through this evening with south to
southeast winds.

Overnight into Sunday morning, a complex of thunderstorms will
likely affect northern Oklahoma with the greatest impacts
expected from KWWR to KPNC/KSWO. There is a chance of impacts as
far south as KCSM to KOKC, but confidence is not as high at these
terminals (PROB30s were included at these terminals). Gusty and
variable winds along with reductions in visibility (IFR
conditions) are possible in the most intense thunderstorms.

Mahale

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  89  66  81 /  20  40  80  60
Hobart OK         72  92  66  82 /  20  50  80  70
Wichita Falls TX  73  98  68  85 /   0  10  50  50
Gage OK           67  85  63  82 /  80  70  70  40
Ponca City OK     67  83  65  83 /  30  70  80  50
Durant OK         71  95  68  87 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...10