Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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519 FXUS64 KOUN 012059 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Heat Advisory, marginal risk of severe thunderstorms, and elevated fire weather potential on Tuesday... The mid-level ridge that was centered over northeast Texas begins to shift eastward over the ArkLaTex region this evening as a broad mid-level trough impinges on the plains. Breezy S/SW-ly winds with gusts to 35 mph along with very hot conditions are expected tomorrow as the lee-side trough deepens. Dewpoint temperatures are forecast to decrease, especially along an axis from Altus to Enid, which will yield afternoon RH values of 20 to 25 percent. With high ERC-G values, indicative of dry vegetation susceptible to increased fire potential, elevated fire conditions are expected tomorrow across parts of western and central Oklahoma and western north Texas. Temperatures of 100 to 105 degrees will be widespread tomorrow with heat index values up to 110 degrees expected. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area for Tuesday afternoon and evening. In addition, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front by late afternoon and into the evening across northwest and northern Oklahoma. Deep, dry air beneath high cloud bases could foster strong to damaging wind gusts with these storms, and strong mid-level lapse rates could also lead to large hail. Frontal timing remains somewhat uncertain: some of the CAMS point to an earlier ETA (mid-afternoon) while the synoptic models show a later one (early evening). Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across northwest and northern Oklahoma on Tuesday night. However, the severe threat should wane shortly after sunset. The aforementioned front could stall leading to rain chances across NW/N Oklahoma on Wednesday. The NAM is the most aggressive and has the front reaching farther south on Wednesday afternoon (Elk City to Watonga to Ponca City). While this is seen with a slight decrease in temperatures over northern Oklahoma with the latest NBM, high temperatures on Wednesday could be quite a bit lower than what the blend suggests. A stronger cold front then pushes into Oklahoma on Thursday afternoon and moves towards central Oklahoma by Thursday evening. Thunderstorm chances have trended a bit higher, and there is the potential of severe storms on Thursday afternoon through late evening, which could delay/impact firework festivities. There is some concern of thunderstorm hazards (lightning, hail, damaging winds, heavy rain) impacting those celebrating outdoors and at nearby lakes. Would be wise to have contingency plans in place for this potential scenario. Rain chances continue Thursday night into Friday with low chances over the weekend. Highs on Friday are expected to be mostly in the 80s with temperatures rebounding into the 90s over the weekend. Thompson && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions to continue. Gusty south winds will continue this afternoon with only a minimal decrease overnight before they become stronger Tuesday morning. Some gusts over 30kts possible across the west on Tuesday. Otherwise, a few afternoon fair-weather cu expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 80 102 79 101 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 81 104 80 103 / 0 0 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 80 104 80 103 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 78 103 71 94 / 0 30 50 20 Ponca City OK 79 103 76 96 / 0 10 20 20 Durant OK 78 101 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048- 050>052. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 017>020-023>032-037>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...30