614
FXUS64 KOUN 042323
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

We haven`t seen measurable rainfall at OKC for a month now, with
the last rainfall occurring at Will Rogers on June 4th. Can say
the same for Lawton, but Wichita Falls` last measurable rain was
June 11th. Naturally, this streak may come to an end on a day that
most of us would like to remain rain free.

While human nature is what it is, the atmosphere has some other
ideas. There`s a cold front draped across central and northern
Oklahoma, roughly along and north of I-40 in western Oklahoma, to
near Stillwater and then northeast to Bartlesville. This front
will be a focus point for thunderstorms to develop between 3 and 6
PM...and is generally in the same vicinity as a theta-e ridge at
700mb, which may help enhance moisture convergence even further.
This forecast attempts to marry the SREF and HRRR solutions,
increasing hourly PoPs twice, once along the front/700 theta-e
ridge...and again a few hours later along the 850mb
frontogenetical band. This is putting a lot of stock in some of
the convective allowing models, yet so far the observations would
suggest the CAMs are on the right track with the processes, but a
bit off on the important details.

The front is a bit further south than where the high resolution
models would suggest, so highest PoPs have been adjusted
southward. Best potential for convective development appears to
be along and just south of I-40 around 2PM...with thunderstorms
affecting outdoor plans for a few hours. Around midnight, another
area of storms is expected to develop...about 50-70 miles north
of where the initial thunderstorms develop. Some storms may become
severe, with wind gusts being the main severe hazard...although
lightning will be the main hazard for everyone.

Afternoon highs today will be near 100 or slightly above in the
southwest...and only in the 80s near the Kansas border. Tomorrow,
all of us should see highs in the 80s...or maybe the lower 90s. We
can therefore say goodbye to heat advisories and excessive heat
warnings for at least a week.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Temperatures slightly increase on Saturday and Sunday, with highs
in the lower 90s...still warm, but not nearly as hot and humid as
what we have seen earlier this week. Long wave trough will move
across the area, giving a low shot at thunderstorms in the late
afternoon/early evening hours during the weekend, with Sunday
having the highest probability (40-60%) occurring Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Point forecast soundings suggest precipitable water values close
to 2" Sunday afternoon and evening, which is in the top 10% of
climatological values for early July. (Mean for July 7th is
1.38"), so the atmosphere would be primed for the potential for
localized heavy rainfall for those lucky (unlucky?) enough to be
under any thunderstorm core Sunday. Plenty of time between now and
then to dive into the details.

Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast period appears to be
slightly less hot than normal, with afternoon highs in the upper
80s.

Fox

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

A cold front will slowly move from central through southern
Oklahoma tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will occur at central
and southern Oklahoma TAF sites this evening. Gusty north winds
will follow briefly before diminishing generally under 12 knots
overnight. VFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  70  87  66  91 /  60  20   0  10
Hobart OK         70  87  65  92 /  50  50  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  72  88  70  93 /  60  40  10  10
Gage OK           64  84  62  91 /  30  20  10  20
Ponca City OK     65  87  65  93 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         74  88  70  94 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ008-012-013-
     017>030-033-034.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ031-
     032-035>048-050>052.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...09