Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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442 FXUS64 KOUN 051805 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 105 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Just a quick update - Areas of rain and some storms will continue to slowly shift south and southeast across the area this afternoon. Have adjusted PoPs to show this trend. The rain and cloud cover has also led to some cooler temperatures, especially across some portions of the fa where temperatures are currently in the 60s and 70s. With rain and clouds lingering this afternoon, these locations will likely struggle to reach forecast highs so have lowered highs across portions of the area for this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 One round of storms winding down across southern Oklahoma and north Texas this evening. Already have seen the next area of storms developing across western Oklahoma early this morning, well ahead of what the latest CAMs would have suggested. This activity is expected to continue to expand across portions of central and western Oklahoma through the morning before gradually shifting south during the day. Main impacts with this activity as instability is rather limited, will be some isolated heavy rainfall as PWATs look to remain near 2 inches. Otherwise, a nice cool down is expected behind the front with most of the area topping out in the mid/upper 80s Friday afternoon with light/moderate northeast wind and lingering cloud cover. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 218 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Will be on the periphery of precip chances as we go through the day Saturday. Rain chances increase Saturday night in the northwest as some weak waa develops with the aid of llj along with small shortwave trough moving southeast out of the central Rockies. A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out across northwest Oklahoma Saturday afternoon and evening. Rain chances really ramp up as we go into Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as another shortwave trough moves through the central plains and associated surface cold front sweeps south into the area. Models depict upscale growth of the convection into possible MCS that will translate south across the area Sunday night. PWATs continue to remain abnormally high and heavy rainfall will again be a concern along with the strongest storms capable of producing some strong wind gusts. With respect to temperatures over the weekend, daytime temps will be a few degrees warmer than what will occur Friday, but still remain near normal. Now for Monday in the wake of the precip and cool front, temps will cool back down with most of the area back into the 80s Monday afternoon. With front lingering across the south and another shortwave moving through the Plains, could see some lingering rain into Monday afternoon across the south. As we go into the middle of the week will have to pay attention to possibility of at least some residual moisture from the remnants of Beryl making there was northward through Texas toward Oklahoma. Models for now are keeping some precip chances into the latter part of next week, along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures as longer wave trough remain across the central part of the country. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR ceilings, although some will be low VFR, this TAF period. Rain and some storms will continue to gradually shift south and southeast this afternoon affecting a few of the TAF sites. Winds will be variable and shifting this afternoon and tonight before become S to SE Saturday. Clouds are expected to clear out of much of the area tonight into Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 81 66 90 70 / 80 10 0 10 Hobart OK 79 66 91 71 / 80 10 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 78 68 92 71 / 70 10 10 10 Gage OK 84 62 90 67 / 20 10 10 40 Ponca City OK 88 65 92 68 / 10 0 0 20 Durant OK 88 69 92 70 / 60 20 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...25