426
FXUS64 KOUN 060029
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
729 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Temperatures at 18Z ranged from the mid 60s in the rain cooled air
in the southwest and southern parts of our forecast area, while
the highest temperature that can be found was 83 in Enid. The
normal low temperature for July 5th is 70. In other words, enjoy
the cooler temperatures. Overnight, the lows will drop to the mid
60s areawide before rebounding to near 90 degrees for the high
temperatures on Saturday. While warm, 90 is below normal for our
part of the world, but only by a few degrees.

Lingering rain continues to occur more or less east and south of
I-44 and will continue to drift southeast for the next few hours.
Expect a few showers to remain after 0Z, but the rain won`t last
for long, leading to a rain free Saturday for most of us.

Fox

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The headaches begin late Saturday and again on Sunday. While most
of us will be rain free on Saturday, during the overnight hours,
there will likely be another MCS developing to our west and
northwest, approaching western Oklahoma in the early morning
hours of Sunday.

Sunday afternoon, there is a two for one offering for thunderstorm
hazards, first severe, and then heavy rainfall/possible flooding.

First - the severe potential Sunday:
With the late night Saturday/early Sunday MCS, expect mainly a
wind threat for the region. However, a few of the CAMs suggest
enough SFC-6km shear near 30 knots, which could give rise to a few
supercell structures within the complex. Granted, this is shaving
the details extremely thin in a 50+ hour forecast, so will
continue to look at the possibilies over the next several model
runs. Bottom line - there will be some strong to severe storms
Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

Second - the heavy rainfall potential Sunday:
Locally heavy rain Sunday and early Monday looks to be a good bet
across the forecast area. What remains to be seen is exactly where
the impacts from heavy rainfall will be. Precipitable water values
are forecast to be over 2" in the north and northwest, from OKC to
Woodward. While this doesn`t sound too terribly high, this is well
above the 95% percentile for the sounding climatology in Oklahoma.
With high anomalies of moisture, and abundant lift we should not
have much trouble getting rainfall to occur, and efficient
rainfall producers at that. Current forecast is for a wide swath
of central and northern Oklahoma to receive between 1 and 3 inches
of rainfall, according to the latest data.

Have considered doing a flood watch for a fairly large part of the
area based on this, but have opted to wait and see if we can
narrow down the locations before issuance. Plus, expecting any
flooding to be additive (rainfall early Sunday will affect who
gets/doesn`t get flooding on Sunday night) and confidence is too
low for now. The key is "for now." I would expect later shifts to
be issuing some sort of flood watch on Saturday as the details get
refined.

After the rain ends during the daytime hours on Monday, things
will slowly return to normal. Afternoon highs will slowly increase
to the mid and upper 90s by the end of next week.

Fox

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 728 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected. Light northeast to east wind will
become south in western Oklahoma Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  66  90  70 /  80  10   0  10
Hobart OK         79  64  90  71 /  80  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  78  68  91  72 /  70  20  10   0
Gage OK           84  62  89  66 /  20  10   0  30
Ponca City OK     88  65  91  69 /  10  10   0  10
Durant OK         88  70  91  70 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...09