682
FXUS64 KOUN 061143
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Cooler surface ridge over the area this morning will shift east
today with south winds returning to the area. This along with
more insolation will result in warmer temperatures across Oklahoma
and north Texas as compared to Friday. Afternoon highs will top out
around 90 degrees across nearly the entire area.

Complex of storms is expected to develop late today across the central
Plains and then head south toward northern Oklahoma tonight.
Models are showing an embedded shortwave trough dropping southeast
out of the Rockies as well as developing WAA and strengthening
LLJ overnight. This looks to lead to MCS developing and dropping
south at least into northern Oklahoma toward 12Z. Some models have
it even further south as we approach sunrise Sunday. Will need to
watch trends for this potential. Storms would pose mainly a
damaging wind risk as they move into northwest Oklahoma along with
heavy rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

This complex is expected to weaken/diminish as we go into the day
Sunday, but does not completely go away and by afternoon
storms are expected to reintensify. The effective shear and
instability would suggest both a large hail and damaging wind risk.
With a transition to more of a wind risk as upscale growth occurs
and larger MCS develops. This system would then translate south
across much of the area late Sunday, Sunday night into Monday
morning. Very heavy rainfall will also be a concern.

This potential heavy rainfall along with the recent precip
events may lead to some more widespread flooding potential as we go
through the day Sunday and Sunday night/early Monday. Have gone
ahead and issued a Flood Watch for a good portion of the area for
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

Some lingering precip chances continue Monday into Tuesday as we get
a reinforcing shot of cooler air move into the area from the north
along with an associated shortwave dropping through the base of
longer wave trough over the central part of the CONUS.

Still will need to watch remnants of Beryl, but latest indications
are that this system will traverse north and northeast through the
Arklatex region, keeping impacts off to our south and east.

Temperatures will recover some as go through the middle and latter
part of the week, but still look to remain below normal for early
July.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

All terminals should remain under VFR conditions through the
forecast period. High surface pressure should move out to our east
as surface winds increase out of the south-southeast at 10-15 kts
by 18Z. A MCS coming down off the Central Plains could produce a
cluster of storms affecting a few of our terminals in northern &
western Oklahoma between 06-12Z. These storms could reduce
conditions but confidence is only high enough at this time for a
PROB30 affecting terminals KWWR & KCSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  90  70  89  66 /   0  10  50  70
Hobart OK         91  72  93  66 /   0  10  40  70
Wichita Falls TX  93  72  97  69 /   0   0  20  50
Gage OK           90  66  83  63 /   0  40  70  70
Ponca City OK     91  68  83  65 /   0  20  70  70
Durant OK         93  71  94  69 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     OKZ004>031-033>042-044>046-050.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...68