478
FXUS66 KOTX 052318
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
418 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather conditions are expected to be hot and dry the next seven
days. Central Washington will experience critical fire weather
conditions into this evening. There will be a long duration
heatwave beginning today and lasting through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: Our upper-level ridge is well-established
offshore, bringing another day of clear skies, dry conditions, and
temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. If you`ve been following
the forecast over the past few days, not much has changed.

Critical fire weather conditions will be a concern into this evening
due to gusty winds through the Cascade gaps in combination with low
relative humidity values in the teens and 20s. A Red Flag Warning is
in effect for the Wenatchee area and the Waterville Plateau from 4
PM to 10 PM tonight.

We`ll remain under the influence of the ridge through this weekend
and nearly all of next week. Afternoon high temperatures will climb
by 2 to 4 degrees each day, and by Monday many locations will see
triple digits for the first time this season. Low temperatures will
struggle to drop below the mid 60s, providing little relief
overnight.

Models are locking in on Wednesday as the hottest day. The
forecasted high temperature for Spokane International Airport is 104
degrees. Some of the highest temperatures that day will be in Omak
and Grand Coulee with a forecast of 109 degrees, and in Lewiston and
Desert Aire where the forecast calls for a sweltering 111 degrees.

A subtle "cooldown" will take place toward the end of next week
as the ridge axis ever so slowly moves eastward into Montana.
Temperatures will drop back down into the upper 90s. Typically
ridges that build in from the west such as this one move through
much more quickly, so it`s quite unusual to see a heat wave
persist over such an extended period of time. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Smoke at the Pioneer Fire on the north end of Lake
Chelan has become more active. As the night time inversion sets
up, drainage winds are expected to push smoke down the lake toward
Chelan and onto the Waterville Plateau each evening the next
several days. A band of hazy conditions is forecast for the
Waterville Plateau to Ritzville and then up to Spokane. Do have
mention of haze for GEG, but not expecting large visibility
issues. A weak dry cold front will bring a push of stronger winds
down the east slopes of the Cascades through 08z. Gusts up to 30
mph will be possible at Wenatchee, Chelan, Entiat, and on the
Waterville Plateau.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions. Low confidence for localized visibility
reductions due to smoke.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  92  64  96  64 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  87  63  91  64  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        59  87  60  93  61  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       68  97  69 101  69 104 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       55  89  56  94  57  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      57  85  57  89  57  93 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        63  84  64  89  65  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     65  98  67 101  66 104 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70  97  71 100  71 104 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           65  97  67 101  67 105 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez
     Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday
     for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin
     Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706).

     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Western
     Chelan County.

&&

$$