779
FXUS66 KOTX 072248
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
348 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather conditions are expected to be hot and dry the next seven
days. Winds will be light through Tuesday. Breezy to gusty winds
return Wednesday with increasing fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today through Wednesday: An unusually strong and persistent
ridge of high pressure will continue to bring hot and dry conditions
across the Inland Northwest. The hottest days will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday with afternoon temperatures ranging from 100 to 110
degrees regionwide. Winds will be light to start off the week, but
will pick up once the ridge begins to flatten late in the day on
Wednesday. After several very hot days and with dry air still in
place, rapid fire spread will be a concern once those winds start to
increase. The Cascade gaps and western Columbia Basin will see the
strongest winds, but the rest of the region will experience a
noticeable increase in winds as well. Uncertainty remains as to how
strong exactly the winds will be. They may or may not meet the
criteria for issuing fire weather highlights.

With such warm temperatures and high mixing heights, we`ll see quite
a jump in the amount of smoke generated by the Pioneer Fire south of
Stehekin. This will likely result in poor air quality for the Lake
Chelan area. Each night, the smoke will settle in the lake basin and
drift down toward Manson. During the day, the smoke will shift back
toward the north end of the lake. There is a chance the smoke will
seep over into the Methow Valley as well. The latest air quality
readings and smoke outlooks can be found at fire.airnow.gov.

Wednesday night through Saturday: Our stretch of hot and dry weather
will last through at least next weekend, though the second half of
the week won`t be quite as hot as the first. High temperatures will
cool 5 to 10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday, putting most
locations in the 90s. The deeper Columbia Basin, Okanogan Valley,
and L-C Valley may still see a few readings in the 100s. Low
temperatures will be cooler as well, dropping back into the 50s and
60s by Thursday night. The "cooldown" may not last long though. Most
models are showing temperatures rebounding Friday into next weekend.
/Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64 100  67 103  69 104 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  66  99  67 101 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        60  95  64 100  66  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       69 104  72 109  74 109 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       56  97  59 101  61 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      58  92  61  97  61  98 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        65  93  69  97  70 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     64 103  67 107  69 107 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70 104  74 107  75 103 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67 105  70 108  71 107 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Western Chelan County.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central
     Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

&&

$$