490
FXUS66 KOTX 082151
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 PM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures will continue through the upcoming week. The
hottest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread triple
digit heat. Breezy to gusty winds return Wednesday with
increasing fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...ONGOING HEAT WAVE DELIVERING NEAR-RECORD HEAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Key messages for the week:

- Very hot temperatures are here and will continue through Wednesday.
- Tuesday and Wednesday will deliver the hottest afternoon highs
  and warmest overnight lows.
- Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for
  some parts of the region Monday through Wednesday.
- Temperatures cool by 5 to 10 degrees Thursday then warm again heading
  into the weekend.
- No precipitation is in sight.

Rest of today through Wednesday: An unusually strong and persistent
ridge of high pressure will continue to bring hot and dry conditions
across the Inland Northwest. The hottest days will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday with afternoon temperatures ranging from 100 to 110
degrees regionwide. Low temperatures will cool into the 50s and low
60s in the northern mountain valleys, but will struggle to cool
below the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. With temperatures this
high during the daytime and minimal relief overnight, it is advised
to take the heat seriously and follow precautions to avoid heat
stress. This includes taking breaks often, staying hydrated, and
accessing air conditioned areas when possible. Be sure to check in
on your furry friends, elders, and others sensitive to heat.

As for fire weather, Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect for
the Cascades and Pioneer Fire. Rapid fire growth is likely given the
hot temperatures, poor overnight RH recoveries, and unstable weather
conditions. In addition, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect
for Central WA Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will be
light to start off the week, but will pick up once the ridge
begins to break down late in the day on Wednesday. After several
very hot days and with dry air still in place, any wind will be a
concern and could allow new and existing fires to spread quickly.
Central WA will see the strongest winds with sustained winds of 15
to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, but the rest of the region will
experience a noticeable increase in winds as well. Breezy winds
will recur each afternoon through the end of the week. The other
thing we will have to monitor for with the shortwave disturbances
moving in between later Wednesday into Wednesday night is dry
lightning. There is a lot of elevated instability per some
guidance and there is a slight increase in moisture ahead of the
shortwave disturbance. However that moisture may outrun the
disturbance. Overall there are a few ingredients that, if they
come together just right, could lead some elevated dry convection.
It may just result in some accas/floccus clouds and that is the
more likely scenario. However the SREF shows about a 3-10% chance
of some dry t-storms, so it gives us at least some pause to keep
an eye out. With that said, there is a 90-97% chance that there
will be no dry thunderstorms. Any lightning in this environment
would not be good. Looking out in the longer terms, toward next
Monday to Wednesday (15th to 17th) a better push of moisture and
disturbances may bring a better threat of shower/t-storms, but
still not big rain producers. Confidence in that is low too.

With such warm temperatures and high mixing heights, we`ll see quite
a jump in the amount of smoke generated by the Pioneer Fire south of
Stehekin. This will likely result in poor air quality for the Lake
Chelan area. Each night, the smoke will settle in the lake basin and
drift down toward Manson. During the day, the smoke will shift back
toward the north end of the lake. There is a chance the smoke will
seep over into the Methow Valley as well. The latest air quality
readings and smoke outlooks can be found at fire.airnow.gov.

Wednesday night through Sunday: Our stretch of hot and dry weather
will stick around for the foreseeable future, though the heat
won`t be quite as extreme after Wednesday. High temperatures will
cool 5 to 10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday, putting most
locations in the 90s. The deeper Columbia Basin, Okanogan Valley,
and L-C Valley may still see a few thermometer readings in the
100s. Low temperatures will be cooler as well, dropping back into
the 50s and 60s by Thursday night. The "cooldown" may not last
long though. Most models are showing temperatures rebounding
heading into the weekend. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail at most TAF sites. Local
reductions in visibility possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan
due to smoke from the Pioneer Fire, especially in the
overnight/early morning hours. Some of this may slip toward EAT
and MWH for some MVFR visibilities.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions. Low confidence in MVFR conditions are EAT and MWH
from smoke/haze from the Pioneer Fire. Low to moderate confidence
in smoke/haze near Lake Chelan.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        67 103  70 104  64  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  66  99  69 101  62  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        63  99  66 100  62  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       72 109  76 109  70 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       59 101  61 101  56  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      62  96  64  98  58  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        69  97  71  99  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     67 107  71 107  63  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73 106  76 103  69  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           70 108  71 107  64 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Western Chelan County.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central
     Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for East Portion of North Cascades National
     Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East
     Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of Central
     Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
     Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
     Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for East Portion of
     North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades
     (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698).

&&

$$