391
FXUS66 KOTX 151830
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1130 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Monday won`t be quite as hot as it was over the weekend, but high
temperatures will still be eight to ten degrees above average.
There will be a 10 to 15 percent chance of dry thunderstorms on
Wednesday with the arrival of an upper level disturbance.
Widespread upper 90s and triple digit temperatures are likely
Wednesday through the weekend as our hot July continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through next Sunday: Today will be the `coolest` day for the
next week, with highs in the 90s to low 100s. Winds will increase
again this afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph across the Columbia
Basin. As the ridge builds in Tuesday, temperatures will start to
warm, increasing by 2-3 degrees each day through Saturday. Models
are hinting at a shortwave sliding through Tuesday that could lead
to a couple thunderstorms but confidence is not high. We`ll keep an
eye on this system and see how it progresses through the next 24
hours.

Wednesday brings the next forecast change, with a wave passing over
beginning early Wednesday, moving northeast through the CWA. With
elevated moisture, how dry the airmass is at the lower levels and
how high the cloud bases will, there is a concern for regionwide dry
lightning. MUCAPE is also showing 400 to 700 J/kg, enough energy to
pop thunderstorms across the region. This wave will move into the
far southwest corner of the CWA by early morning, moving northeast
as the day progresses. By late evening the threat will have moved to
the northern mountains in the far northeast corner of WA and ID
Panhandle. Isolated dry thunderstorms has been add to the forecast
for this threat. After our period of hot and dry conditions, fuels
will be especially susceptible to ignition, so any lightning could
begin fires.

Thursday and Friday will be more relaxed weatherwise but temperatures
wise, we will see an increase each day. As we reach Saturday,
widespread 100 degree temperatures for the lower elevations,
reaching towards record temperatures. Sunday is forecasted to be
warmer than Saturday again by a could degrees. Nighttime lows will
also warm each day with upper 60s to low 70s expected by Friday
night. Areas along the Columbia River, Okanogan Valley, and LC
Valley are forecasted to have lows only drop into the mid 70s, not
cool enough if you rely on opening your house up at night to cool it
off. If you have outdoor plans late this week into next weekend,
plan for hot temperatures. /KM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Local reductions in
visibility are possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to
smoke from the Pioneer Fire. Breezy winds will occur this
afternoon with the strongest winds in the lee of the Cascades.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        95  61  99  63  99  64 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  91  59  95  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pullman        90  56  95  59  95  60 /   0   0   0   0  20   0
Lewiston      101  65 103  68 104  71 /   0   0   0   0  20   0
Colville       94  53  97  54  97  55 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      91  55  94  56  95  58 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Kellogg        89  64  93  67  95  68 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     99  60 101  63 102  63 /   0   0   0   0  20   0
Wenatchee      98  67 101  73 100  71 /   0   0   0   0  20   0
Omak          103  65 104  66 103  66 /   0   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$