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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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906 FXUS66 KOTX 152207 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 307 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry weather will continue this week with widespread upper 90s and triple digit temperatures. On Wednesday there is chance of thunderstorms across the region containing little to no rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Wednesday Night: An upper ridge will remain over the region into Tuesday with a slight increase in temperatures. This increase has prompted the issuance of another heat advisory for several valleys across the region with moderate to major heat risk. Most locations within the heat advisory will top out in the mid 90s to near 103F on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday attention will turn to a mid level disturbances moving through the region from the south. An increase in mid level instability, along with a continued hot and dry low level air mass will increase the potential for thunderstorms with little to no rain. For most of the region coverage is expected to be isolated with 700-500mb MU CAPE values around 200-500 J/KG with moderate amounts of lift. However areas from the East Slopes of the Cascades into the Waterville Plateau, Okanogan Valley, and Okanogan Highlands will be under the core of highest lift and instability with better model support for scattered coverage. Lightning will raise concerns for new fire starts across the landscape on Wednesday. In addition, gusty outflow winds could result in fire spread with any new starts. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for several areas of North Central Washington. Smoke from the Pioneer Fire will continue this week, impacting air quality especially around Lake Chelan, and portions of the Methow Valley. The Department of Ecology has issued an Air Quality Alert until further notice. JW Thursday through Monday: The ridge will rebound behind Wednesdays wave and gradually bring the above normal temperatures to the region. Temperatures will peak over the weekend with highs reaching into the upper 90s and low triple digits. Overnight lows will be the 60s to low 70s. Ensembles are in good agreement of the ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest lasting through the weekend. The models begin to shift the ridge Eastward late Monday and Tuesday as a trough begins to press into the region. It will bring slightly cooler temps but also breezy winds. We will have to keep an eye out for the pattern change. Smoke will continue to impact the areas near the Pioneer Fire. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Local reductions in visibility are possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to smoke from the Pioneer Fire. Breezy winds will continue through the afternoon with the strongest winds in the lee of the Cascades. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 61 97 64 99 64 99 / 0 0 0 20 20 0 Coeur d`Alene 59 93 61 97 63 96 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Pullman 55 93 59 95 60 94 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Lewiston 66 103 69 104 71 105 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Colville 53 95 54 97 54 97 / 0 0 0 20 20 0 Sandpoint 55 91 56 95 56 95 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Kellogg 63 92 67 95 68 94 / 0 0 0 10 20 0 Moses Lake 60 100 64 102 63 101 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Wenatchee 68 100 74 100 71 102 / 0 0 0 20 20 0 Omak 65 103 67 103 66 104 / 0 0 0 20 20 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties- Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area- Western Okanogan County. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). && $$