637
FXUS66 KOTX 172152
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
252 PM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and dry weather will continue this week with widespread upper
90s and triple digit temperatures. For tonight, there is chance
of thunderstorms across the region containing little to no
rainfall.
Today
&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Thursday morning: A shortwave is currently passing
through the Inland Northwest. It is expected to continue through
early Thursday morning. It is already generating lightning over
the Cascades of Southern Washington. It will slowly spread North
and bring thunderstorms to Chelan and Western Okanogan county
through early evening. Lightning will raise concerns for new fire
starts across the landscape. Short term models are showing another
round of convection possible as the wave continue to move through
Eastern Washington and North Idaho. The lightning potential is
lower with this line. The better chances for thunderstorms will be
over the Blues, Palouse, Spokane, and Northeast Washington areas.
The main concern will be the localized gusty winds around 40 MPH
spreading any new fire starts rapidly. Lows will be in the 60s.

Thursday through Monday: The ridge is proving to be very
stubborn. The models have previous shifted the ridge east through
Friday but now have kept it in place over the Pacific Northwest.
It will keep continue to keep daytime highs into the upper 90s and
triple digits for many. Temperatures will peak over the weekend
with highs reaching into the upper 90s and low triple digits.
Overnight lows will be the 60s to low 70s. Ensembles are in good
agreement of the ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest lasting
through the weekend. The models begin to shift the ridge Eastward
late Monday and Tuesday as a trough begins to press into the
region. It will bring slightly cooler temps but also breezy winds.
We will have to keep an eye out for the pattern change as it
could bring some fire weather concerns. Smoke is will continue to
impact the air quality for areas around wildfires particularly the
Lake Chelan and Lower Idaho Panhandle. The smoke could help to
bring a little relief from the daytime highs. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: High clouds and smoke are passing through the region.
Downslope winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades will push
smoke from the Pioneer Fire down Lake Chelan into the Chelan and
Methow Valley airports this morning. Some minor visibility
reductions will also occur at the Lewiston airport with localized
smoke from Oregon. Small chance of thunderstorms overnight and
into Thursday morning for most TAF sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
With the exception of smoke near the Pioneer Fire and in Lewiston,
there is high confidence in VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  98  64  98  66 101 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  63  95  63  96  63 100 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        58  94  59  94  61  99 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       71 104  71 104  71 108 /  40   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       57  97  55  97  55 100 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      60  93  57  95  56  98 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        67  92  68  94  69  98 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     63 101  62 101  62 103 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      71 102  70 100  70 103 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67 103  66 103  66 106 /  50   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Sunday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Sunday for Central Chelan County-
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Lower Palouse  -
     Snake River (Zone 709).

     Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Eastern Columbia
     Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Western Columbia
     Basin (Zone 707).

     Red Flag Warning until 2 AM PDT Thursday for Foothills of
     Northeast Washington (Zone 701).

     Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Colville
     Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades
     National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone
     697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East
     Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Foothills of Central
     Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-
     Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan
     Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706).

&&

$$