625
FXUS66 KOTX 190005
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
505 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong high pressure will begin to amplify over the Inland
Northwest during this period continuing our string of hot weather
which began around July 5th. The heat will likely peak this
weekend with widespread triple digit high temperatures and
possible records. There are hints the heat will finally relent by
the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After further coordination with neighboring NWS offices, a Heat
Advisory has been adjusted to end 11 AM Saturday, with an
Excessive Heat Warning issued from 11 AM Saturday - 8 PM Monday.
JW

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: The Inland NW expect VFR conditions to continue through
the period. The only exception will be some hazy conditions from
increasing smoke from the regional fires this afternoon/evening,
including the Pioneer Fire near Lake Chelan. The HRRR smoke model
suggests this will drift N-NW late today and tonight and should
remain out of the KEAT area.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
With the exception of smoke near wildfires confidence is high for
continued VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2024/

Tonight through Sunday: The ridge is rebounding across the
Pacific Northwest. It will bring another weekend of major to
extreme heat across the Inland Northwest. Temperatures will
gradually increase and peak on Sunday. Highs will generally be in
the upper 90s and low triple digits. Overnight lows will bring
little relief as they are expected to be in the upper 50s and
60s. Winds will generally be light and calm from a south to
southwest direction. Ensembles are hinting at another shortwave
sliding along the Cascade crest on Sunday. It will lead to an
increase in winds down the Cascade Gaps and the Waterville Plateau
for Sunday afternoon and evening. Winds will sustained into the
teens and gusts near 30 MPH are possible. There are indicators of
weak convection in the North Cascades. But being so small, there
is little no confidence of any thunder activity in the area.

Monday through Thursday: A Low over the Gulf will push a trough
across the region and shift the ridge to the East and South
finally breaking the very hot period for the Pacific Northwest.
While precipitable waters are expected to increase in the region,
ensembles are little to no precip expected for the Inland
Northwest. Monday is expected to be last major day of heat as
cooler begins to filter into the the region with the trough. Highs
will drop to more seasonable temperatures with upper 80s and 90s
expected. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. It is expected to be
a gradual cooling and moistening of the region. Winds will
continue to be breezy and slightly stronger. This could lead to
potential fire weather concerns. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        65  98  65 101  67 106 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  62  96  63  99  65 104 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        59  93  60  97  62 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       70 103  71 107  71 112 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       55  97  54 100  56 104 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      58  94  57  98  59 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        67  94  69  98  71 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     62 100  61 103  66 109 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      70  99  69 102  76 108 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           67 103  65 105  68 110 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
     Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday
     for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho
     Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-
     Northern Panhandle.

WA...Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT Saturday for Central Chelan County-
     Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Okanogan County.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday
     for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin
     Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday for Western
     Chelan County.

&&

$$