740
FXUS66 KOTX 041013
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
313 AM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weather conditions are expected to be dry and generally fair the
next seven days. There will be a long duration heatwave starting
after July 4th. It is expected to last through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday:  Independence day will feature above
temperatures 4 to 7 degrees above normal (low 80s to low 90s) high
with very sunny skies. The offshore ridge will continue to deepen
today bringing even warmer temperatures to us by the weekend.
Temperatures by Friday will be 8-13 degrees above normal (mid 80s to
near 100 degrees). Sunday through Wednesday temperatures are
forecast to be 13 to 17 degrees above normal (mid 90s to upper
100s). There is an elevated fire threat Friday afternoon in the
evening as a dry shortwave increases the Seattle-Wenatchee pressure
gradient to 5-8 mb in the aftenoon and evening hours. Winds will
gust up to 25 mph near Wenatchee as RHs are rising into the upper
teens to low 20s in the late afternoon to evening hours.

HeatRisk increases to "major" by Sunday for all major population
centers in central and Eastern Washington. For Monday through
Thursday, all major population centers are forecasted to be in the
"major" HeatRisk as temperatures will be in the mid 90s to upper
100s with low temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. There is
increasing confidence for "Extreme" HeatRisk for the L-C valley and
the lower river valleys of central Washington. There is a 55% chance
for Lewiston and Clarkston to hit 110 degrees or greater Tuesday!
Cluster guidance indicates a slow "cooldown" into the mid 90s by
next Friday as the ridge axis is still centered over Montana.

The duration of this heatwave is impressive. The current record for
consecutive 95+ degrees at Spokane International AP is 10 days in
August of 1967. This is hard to beat To be in the top 10 for
consecutive 95+ degrees, Spokane International only needs to be 95+
degrees for 5 days which is what our forecast is calling for. /Butler

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected for the TAF sites for the
period. Expect passing high clouds and a few afternoon fair
weather cumulus.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        87  57  93  61  92  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  83  55  88  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        83  54  89  57  90  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       92  62  98  66  99  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       84  50  90  53  90  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      81  51  88  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        79  59  86  62  84  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     92  58  99  63  98  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      91  65  99  68  98  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           92  60  98  63  97  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Thursday
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez
     Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Thursday
     for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin
     Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for
     Western Chelan County.

&&

$$