641
FXUS61 KOKX 062009
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
409 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The front stalls over or near the area through Monday. A
series of frontal boundaries will impact the region for much of
the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
through Friday

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A weakening frontal boundary will likely stall over the area
tonight. This boundary will be the focus for some showers and
thunderstorms early tonight. Although there will be plenty of
moisture (with dew points in the 70s) as well as instability (at
least elevated, forecast soundings show a pretty decent inversion
over the area, so anything that develops would have to be elevated),
a limiting factor for convection would be lift. With the front
weakening, forecast sounding show not a lot of lift to work with.
Additionally, shear looks to be weakening as well. The chance for
showers and thunderstorms therefore looks to decrease overnight, and
though something strong to severe could develop, especially north
and west of NYC, chances do not look overly impressive.

Very humid conditions continue overnight. This will lead to the
development of fog once again. Will have to monitor for the
potential for dense fog towards daybreak, especially for eastern
portions of the area.

Warm overnight lows expected. Middle to upper 70s across NYC and NE
NJ and lower 70s for most other location. Middle to upper 60s are
expected across much of the Lower Hudson Valley, though this might
be dependent on the location of the front. If it has a tougher time
making its way through and remains just west of the area tonight,
the lows across the Lower Hudson Valley could be a few degrees
warmer than forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The front remains near or over the region on Sunday. Outside of some
lingering showers and thunderstorms for eastern areas early in the
morning, it should be mainly dry. An isolated shower or
thunderstorms is possible, mainly across Long Island and southeast CT
as some of the CAMs are showing some development for Sunday.
However, the lift continues to look weak, and the precipitation
looks to be more stratiform than convective in some of the models,
but overall light.

Highs may be slightly higher as compared to Saturday, especially
away from the coast, as a weak westerly flow may allow for some
downsloping. However, dew points will be lower, in the upper 60s for
the western half of the forecast area. Therefore, only isolated
spots are expected to reach heat indices of 95-99 and the Heat
Advisories were not extended into Sunday. Closer to the coast, sea
breezes develop, and while they are going to be more humid,
especially eastern areas, temperatures will not be as warm. Highs
will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s for metro NYC and the
interior, while lower to middle 80s are expected for eastern
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore on Monday, with mostly dry conditions
expected. Southerly flow will help allow temperatures to rise into
the middle 80s to lower 90s.

A frontal boundary approaches the region Tuesday, with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for any precipitation
will be from NYC and points north and west.

The front lingers in the vicinity of the CWA Wednesday into
Wednesday night with chances for showers and thunderstorms
continuing. Another front approaches late week, keeping the chances
for showers and storms in the forecast. Hard to pinpoint exactly
where any storms fire up each day, so will generally keep pops a
chance for much of the long term. The only exception will be Tuesday
afternoon/evening, where POPs to increased to likely.

Temperatures each day will be in either the 80s or lower 90s, with
the warmest day of the week on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A slow moving frontal system impacts the terminals through
tonight.

VFR outside of any shra/tstms. Exceptions are KISP/KGON which
should remain sub-vfr through the afternoon.

MVFR/IFR conditions probably work back as far west as KBDR
tonight due to weak flow and residual moisture and could get
close to KJFK as well overnight.

Winds S-SW 10-15 kt this afternoon. SW to light and variable
winds tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Still a chance of TSRA through around 23z, but confidence in passing
through or nearby the terminal not high enough to include in TAFs.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday PM: VFR

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday PM through Thursday : Periods of sub-VFR with
shra/tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves have fallen below SCA criteria from Sandy Hook to
Fire Island, so cancelled the advisory there. SCA continues over the
other ocean zones through 8 am Sunday morning. However, if
conditions lower quicker than forecast as it has for the western
ocean zone, SCA will likely come down earlier. Otherwise, SCA is not
expected for the rest of Sunday and Sunday night.

Dense fog over the waters is possible tonight into early Sunday
morning with a humid air mass in place. Will have to monitor for
this possibility.

With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions on the
waters are expected to remain below small craft advisory thresholds
Monday through the middle of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
While flash flooding is not out of the question as any thunderstorms
tonight will have the potential to produce heavy rain, the
potential for flash flooding looks lower than in previous
forecasts, especially with the lower potential for convection.

Enhanced moisture with a slow-moving cold front will bring a
chance of widespread minor/poor drainage flooding as well as
potential localized flash flooding Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, no other widespread hydrologic issues are expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
High rip current risk remains at the ocean beaches, continuing into
this evening.

For Sunday, a moderate rip current risk is forecast for the ocean
beaches with southerly 5-10 kt winds and ocean waves of around 3-4
ft. For Monday, winds remain nearly the same as the previous day but
with ocean seas further subsiding to near 2 to 3 ft, there will be
a low rip current risk.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ067>075-
     176>178.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-006-
     103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...