550
FXUS64 KOHX 070703
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
203 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Clouds primarily over the southeastern portions of the mid state
this morning. Dewpoints are much more tolerable now and are in the
lower 60s. As for temps they are holding mostly in the mid to upper
60s, so a very nice overnight is in place.

Today`s weather map will feature a surface high over Lake Erie with
some southwestward ridging noted. The mid and upper levels feature a
developing trough over the central US. Another reasonably nice
warmup will transpire today. Low level flow is very weak so look for
those lower dewpoints, lower 60s, to remain once again and make for
a warm but tolerable day. Moving forward, we will need to discuss
Hurricane Beryl.

Beryl is expected to reach the TX gulf coast during the pre dawn
hours Monday morning. Looks like he`ll be a cat 1 at landfall. The
aforementioned upper trough is expected to pick Beryl up and send him
northward through east TX as a tropical storm during the day. He will
then further weaken into a depression and move across AR and the MO
Bootheel on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

What does Beryl hold in store for us? Well, convective chances will
return on Monday due to favorable cape return not really associated
with the tropical system yet. On Tuesday however, we will see some
of the tropical moisture move across western TN. Note that the
expected track is good deal west of our area. Thus, model trends are
backing off from some of those earlier 1"-2" rainfall predictions.
At any rate, we will see our convective chances reach into the
likely range on Tuesday as per Beryl`s moisture. QPF expectations
are now just 1/2" or so. Perhaps a little higher across our far
west. Otw, SPC has expanded the marginal risk northward to include
much of AR and into the se MO bootheel. Looks like this risk
should remain to our west.

For the near term temps, it`s looking seasonably warm but humidity
levels will remain on the drier side initially. Some mugginess will
return though by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

In the extended forecast, the remnants of Beryl will push on off to
our north and northeast on Wednesday. He will be replaced by a
prevailing surface high which will basically maintain its hold
through much of the period. The upper levels will feature some
modest, but largely apparent, w-e ridging through the deep and mid
south. Pops will be included but only to the tune of 20% or so. Cape
return looks weak and the late afternoon hours feature a tendency
toward subsidence.

As for any additional tropical development? Not seeing much of
anything at this point.

For those extended temperatures, we will start out close to seasonal
levels. However, heights are expected to rise through the period as
we remain sandwiched between a rather strong rocky mountain upper
high as well as toward our east across Bermuda. So, look for our
temps to climb into the mid 90s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Fog potential is overall
low tonight but maybe some patchy fog in the vicinity of KSRB
between 09 and 12z. Light northerly winds 6 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  73  96  75 /   0  10  30  20
Clarksville    90  69  92  73 /   0   0  20  30
Crossville     89  67  89  68 /  10  10  30  20
Columbia       94  71  94  73 /   0  10  30  20
Cookeville     89  69  90  70 /   0  10  30  20
Jamestown      88  67  90  69 /   0  10  30  20
Lawrenceburg   93  70  93  72 /   0  10  30  20
Murfreesboro   95  71  96  73 /   0  10  30  20
Waverly        91  69  92  72 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Mueller