459
FXUS64 KOHX 080521
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

All is quiet tonight across Middle TN with light winds and
clearing skies. Some patchy fog is once again possible overnight
and into early Monday morning in the favored areas along and near
the Cumberland Plateau. No major forecast changes were made this
evening. High temperatures creep back up into the mid-90s tomorrow
afternoon, and humidity values will also unfortunately creep back
up. This will lead to heat index values in the upper-90s to
low-100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday night)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Dew points continue to be relaxed today under northeast flow. This
is making for a fairly comfortable last day of the holiday weekend.
Doesn`t mean it isn`t warm out there, though. Temperatures will top
out in the low to mid 90s. Fortunately, rains will stay off the
radar. The transition to muggier conditions happens tonight. By
tomorrow morning, the region will firmly be in a southerly flow
bringing low 70s dew points back to Middle TN tomorrow. With the
warmest air temperatures of the week expected tomorrow, Heat
Index values will touch low triple digits once again west of the
Cumberland Plateau. Rain chances will also creep back into the
forecast, however they are pretty small. Looks like the best shot
will be across our southern tier of mid-state counties during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. Activity should remain
fairly isolated based on latest CAM solutions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A few changes have reared their heads since yesterday. As mentioned
overnight, Beryl will be making landfall on the TX coast tonight and
this will drive our weather for Tuesday. Uncertainty in Beryl`s
trajectory lead us to talk more of a rain event yesterday with the
potential for 1 to 3 inches. Latest WPC revisions suggest much lower
QPF (less than an inch) as current forecast trajectories keep the
surface low of Beryl`s remnants following a path up the
Mississippi River, merging it with a mid-level wave over the
center of the country. Here`s the problem with this: it puts
Middle TN into a position of at least a low-end severe weather
potential rather than a heavy-ish rain event. Current forecast
soundings Tuesday afternoon and evening are showing a healthy
amount of deep layer shear (35-40 kts) coupled with plenty of
instability that will already be in place. Also, hodographs show
some curve in them. I`d like to see better lapse rates for severe
weather, but they don`t typically accompany tropical-type
systems, so it may not matter. By no means am I ringing any bells
here, but this is a change from what we were seeing yesterday.
Best chances for some isolated wind gusts and yes, even a brief
spin-up would be west of I-65. We`ll update this potential tonight
and again tomorrow, obviously, but a lot will depend on the
eventual track of that surface low of Beryl`s remnants. Please
remain weather aware for Tuesday.

Not only do we have this big change in the forecast, but in the wake
of Beryl`s remnants, things looks much quieter than previously
thought. By early Wednesday morning, rain chances evaporate and
right now, the rest of the week looks mostly dry. The unfortunate
side of that means without the rain chances, afternoon highs will
creep higher each day. Extended guidance shows forecast highs
getting back into the mid and upper 90s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at BNA/MQY/CKV for the taf period. Fog
may impact CSV/SRB prior to dawn this morning. Any fog will
dissipate by 12-13z. A stray shower or storm could impact
BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV this afternoon but chances are too low to include.
Winds will be around 5 kts or less through the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  75  95  74 /  20  20  60  60
Clarksville    92  73  89  71 /  20  30  80  80
Crossville     90  69  90  69 /  30  10  50  50
Columbia       96  73  95  71 /  20  20  50  50
Cookeville     90  71  90  71 /  20  10  50  60
Jamestown      90  69  89  71 /  20  10  50  50
Lawrenceburg   95  72  94  71 /  20  20  50  50
Murfreesboro   97  73  96  73 /  20  20  60  60
Waverly        92  71  91  68 /  20  40  70  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Clements
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Reagan