841
FXUS64 KOHX 062337
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
637 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Some high clouds continue to stream into the area at forecast time,
especially over the western half. Those east of I-65 are just now
starting to reach convective temperatures, which means cu fields are
starting to develop. PoPs this afternoon remain at 10% or less and
with the inversion at 800 mb on this morning`s OHX sounding there`s
no reason to increase them, even for an extremely isolated pinhead
shower or two that might develop east of I-65 today. Temperatures
might be running a touch ahead of the overnight forecast, but with
slightly lower dew points filtering in from the north, feels-like
temps should remain below triple digits. Similar conditions are
expected tomorrow with 10% or less PoPs and afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Things start to change on Monday, however. Southerly boundary layer
flow kicks in and icky dew points return. That means low triple
digit Heat Index values will return to the mid-state. In addition,
rain chances start creeping back into the forecast. With the
Bermuda high back over the Atlantic, a trough approaching from the
northwest and Beryl making landfall in TX Monday morning, rain
chances will increase precipitously (see what I did there?) Monday
night, Tuesday and right into the day on Wednesday. Current WPC
guidance runs 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across the mid-state. For
now, this is acceptable as ensembles show less than 10% chance of
more than that, but we will need to watch this closely over the
next couple of days as we figure out the path of Beryl`s remnants.

After Wednesday, rain chances don`t disappear from the forecast as
Middle TN remains in kind of a convergence zone between a trough to
our north and the ridge to our east. This should keep a minimum 30
to 50% PoP in the forecast through the remainder of next week. With
the general troughiness, though, that means we should hover near
more normal temperatures for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditons prevail. Light winds genrally from north or
northeast. Patchy fog in the Cumberland plateau after 06Z before
diminishing after sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  95  73  96 /   0   0  10  40
Clarksville    66  91  69  92 /   0   0  10  20
Crossville     62  90  68  89 /   0  10  20  50
Columbia       67  94  70  95 /   0  10  20  40
Cookeville     65  89  70  89 /   0  10  20  40
Jamestown      64  89  68  89 /   0  10  20  40
Lawrenceburg   66  93  70  94 /   0  10  20  40
Murfreesboro   67  95  71  96 /   0   0  20  40
Waverly        67  92  70  92 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Clements/Payette