Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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112 FXUS64 KOHX 071109 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 609 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Clouds primarily over the southeastern portions of the mid state this morning. Dewpoints are much more tolerable now and are in the lower 60s. As for temps they are holding mostly in the mid to upper 60s, so a very nice overnight is in place. Today`s weather map will feature a surface high over Lake Erie with some southwestward ridging noted. The mid and upper levels feature a developing trough over the central US. Another reasonably nice warmup will transpire today. Low level flow is very weak so look for those lower dewpoints, lower 60s, to remain once again and make for a warm but tolerable day. Moving forward, we will need to discuss Hurricane Beryl. Beryl is expected to reach the TX gulf coast during the pre dawn hours Monday morning. Looks like he`ll be a cat 1 at landfall. The aforementioned upper trough is expected to pick Beryl up and send him northward through east TX as a tropical storm during the day. He will then further weaken into a depression and move across AR and the MO Bootheel on Tuesday night and Wednesday. What does Beryl hold in store for us? Well, convective chances will return on Monday due to favorable cape return not really associated with the tropical system yet. On Tuesday however, we will see some of the tropical moisture move across western TN. Note that the expected track is good deal west of our area. Thus, model trends are backing off from some of those earlier 1"-2" rainfall predictions. At any rate, we will see our convective chances reach into the likely range on Tuesday as per Beryl`s moisture. QPF expectations are now just 1/2" or so. Perhaps a little higher across our far west. Otw, SPC has expanded the marginal risk northward to include much of AR and into the se MO bootheel. Looks like this risk should remain to our west. For the near term temps, it`s looking seasonably warm but humidity levels will remain on the drier side initially. Some mugginess will return though by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 158 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 In the extended forecast, the remnants of Beryl will push on off to our north and northeast on Wednesday. He will be replaced by a prevailing surface high which will basically maintain its hold through much of the period. The upper levels will feature some modest, but largely apparent, w-e ridging through the deep and mid south. Pops will be included but only to the tune of 20% or so. Cape return looks weak and the late afternoon hours feature a tendency toward subsidence. As for any additional tropical development? Not seeing much of anything at this point. For those extended temperatures, we will start out close to seasonal levels. However, heights are expected to rise through the period as we remain sandwiched between a rather strong rocky mountain upper high as well as toward our east across Bermuda. So, look for our temps to climb into the mid 90s by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Any patchy fog this morning will lift in the next hour or so. Light northerly winds under 7 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 73 96 75 / 0 10 30 20 Clarksville 90 69 92 73 / 0 0 20 30 Crossville 89 67 89 68 / 10 10 30 20 Columbia 94 71 94 73 / 0 10 30 20 Cookeville 89 69 90 70 / 0 10 30 20 Jamestown 88 67 90 69 / 0 10 30 20 Lawrenceburg 93 70 93 72 / 0 10 30 20 Murfreesboro 95 71 96 73 / 0 10 30 20 Waverly 91 69 92 72 / 0 0 20 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Mueller