Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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090 FXUS64 KOHX 010709 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Cold front has pushed south of Middle Tennessee this morning with cooler and drier air gradually filtering in from the north. Dewpoints have fallen into the 60s across most of the forecast area, with 50s dewpoints just north of the border, so lows are still anticipated to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s near or just after sunrise. Today will feel quite un-July-like thanks to this cooler and drier airmass, with highs only expected to reach the upper 70s to the mid 80s - which is up to 5 degrees below normal for early July. Unfortunately, this nice weather will not last long as a strong upper level ridge with 500mb heights near 596dm shifts eastward and centers itself across the state on Tuesday. This will bring both the heat and humidity back in earnest, with highs back into the 90s for most of the midstate and dewpoints rising into the 60s and 70s through the day. No precipitation is anticipated though due to the suppression from the upper ridge. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 113 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Both the heat and low level moisture will continue increasing into Wednesday as the upper ridge remains in place and southerly flow deepens across the state. Highs are anticipated to be a few degrees above Tuesday`s readings with near 90 on the Plateau and low to mid 90s - and possibly some upper 90s - elsewhere. The increased heat and humidity on Wednesday looks to bring heat index readings up into the 105-110 range from many areas west of the Plateau, so a Heat Advisory appears likely. A few isolated showers and storms are possible during the afternoon as well, but once again the strength of the upper ridge should keep these limited. Heights aloft will begin falling on July 4th as the upper level ridge sinks to our south due to the main jet stream edging down into the Midwest. Even so, still appears quite hot and humid with temperatures only slightly below Wednesday`s levels, and another Heat Advisory will likely be needed. However, guidance shows a weak shortwave trough passing eastward across the region on the north side of the upper ridge, which should give us decent rain chances during the day with chance to likely pops. NBM pops appear too high compared to the GFS/ECMWF and nudged them down somewhat. Most guidance shows shower/storm coverage diminishing significantly by evening, so hopefully most July 4th activities won`t have to also deal with nature`s fireworks. Upper level ridging will continue to weaken from Friday through the weekend as an upper trough digs southward through the Midwest. This pattern will push another cold front into the midstate on Saturday with the front making it through the cwa by Sunday. Therefore expect fairly high pops for Friday and Saturday before rain chances drop to just low chances by Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will also be knocked down another notch with highs only in the mid 80s to low 90s over the weekend. By early next week, temps will start going back up once again, but a persistant upper trough over the Great Lakes and Midwest will give us daily chances for summertime showers and storms. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 TAFs are VFR. High pressure is currently building in from the north following yesterdays fropa. Winds will stay up a few knots owing to a relatively strong pressure gradient. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 85 64 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 82 59 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 80 59 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Columbia 86 61 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 79 61 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jamestown 79 59 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lawrenceburg 85 61 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 86 61 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Waverly 82 60 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....Rose