Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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538 FXUS64 KOHX 051730 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has exited Middle TN at forecast time. A few of them became strong with a 40 mph wind gust or two and lots of lightning, but for the most part, they behaved themselves. A few showers remain in their wake and while that`ll be the bulk of today`s activity for most, areas east of I-65 aren`t quite out of the woods. CAMs have been suggesting additional convective development this afternoon. Even with many seeing storms already today, models have wanted to increase both instability and shear values across the eastern half from about 1 pm until 6 pm. However, with additional cloud cover, this is looking less likely for most of the area. Will focus some likely PoPs on the far eastern part of the Cumberland Plateau, but there is a chance that most afternoon development happens in East TN. If we do get storms, with the addition of about 40 kts of bulk shear, damaging gusty winds will be possible. Again, this is looking less likely, but if you`re on the Cumberland Plateau and have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky until about 6 pm. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The weekend looks pretty good. The energy associated with today`s storms will get south of us tonight and set up dry conditions Saturday through most of Monday. Temperatures will warm a degree or two each day with Monday being the warmest day of this forecast package. Should stay below Head Advisory criteria, however. That doesn`t mean it won`t be humid. The weekend should enjoy a little break from the humidity, but 70+ dew points return on Monday. (Insert little pukey face here). By Monday night, as that heat and humidity has built back into the area, showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast. A couple of things will be going on. First, with the Bermuda high slipping back over the Atlantic and a upper trough digging into the region, this in and of itself would increase rain chances across the area. It`s the second part that may very well be the driver of a lot of rain across the mid-state: the remnants of Beryl. Hurricane Beryl is expected to make landfall near the Texas/Mexico border Monday evening. Models aren`t in complete agreement how much it will affect Middle TN, but there`s at least some agreement we`ll get rain from it mid-week. Obviously, there`s much to be worked out as far as the details, but this becomes a good news-bad news scenario: yes, it`ll be cooler (upper 80s to 90 degrees), but it looks pretty wet. Hey, now that I think about it, maybe it`s a good news-good news scenario. The gardens will be happy. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Shower activity has moved out of CSV leaving all Middle Tennessee terminals dry. A couple showers could redevelop and impact CSV this afternoon but chances are low. Fog could develop near dawn at CSV and SRB dropping visibilities to IFR/MVFR at times. Winds for the taf period will be out of the WNW/NW between 5-10 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 92 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 67 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 65 86 63 88 / 30 10 10 20 Columbia 68 91 68 93 / 10 10 0 10 Cookeville 67 85 65 88 / 20 10 10 10 Jamestown 66 84 64 87 / 20 10 10 10 Lawrenceburg 68 90 67 92 / 10 10 10 10 Murfreesboro 69 92 67 93 / 10 10 0 10 Waverly 66 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Reagan