Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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239 FXUS64 KOHX 060134 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 834 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 828 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A quiet night looks to be ahead with dry conditions and mild overnight temps. Low-level moisture overnight suggests fog is likely to develop, especially along and near the Cumberland Plateau. Any fog will diminish after sunrise, leading to a beautiful weekend with dry conditions and mostly clear skies. Temperatures will be "cooler" in the upper-80s to low-90s, but dewpoints will be lower, leading to more tolerable afternoon humidity. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A broken line of showers and thunderstorms has exited Middle TN at forecast time. A few of them became strong with a 40 mph wind gust or two and lots of lightning, but for the most part, they behaved themselves. A few showers remain in their wake and while that`ll be the bulk of today`s activity for most, areas east of I-65 aren`t quite out of the woods. CAMs have been suggesting additional convective development this afternoon. Even with many seeing storms already today, models have wanted to increase both instability and shear values across the eastern half from about 1 pm until 6 pm. However, with additional cloud cover, this is looking less likely for most of the area. Will focus some likely PoPs on the far eastern part of the Cumberland Plateau, but there is a chance that most afternoon development happens in East TN. If we do get storms, with the addition of about 40 kts of bulk shear, damaging gusty winds will be possible. Again, this is looking less likely, but if you`re on the Cumberland Plateau and have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky until about 6 pm. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The weekend looks pretty good. The energy associated with today`s storms will get south of us tonight and set up dry conditions Saturday through most of Monday. Temperatures will warm a degree or two each day with Monday being the warmest day of this forecast package. Should stay below Head Advisory criteria, however. That doesn`t mean it won`t be humid. The weekend should enjoy a little break from the humidity, but 70+ dew points return on Monday. (Insert little pukey face here). By Monday night, as that heat and humidity has built back into the area, showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast. A couple of things will be going on. First, with the Bermuda high slipping back over the Atlantic and a upper trough digging into the region, this in and of itself would increase rain chances across the area. It`s the second part that may very well be the driver of a lot of rain across the mid-state: the remnants of Beryl. Hurricane Beryl is expected to make landfall near the Texas/Mexico border Monday evening. Models aren`t in complete agreement how much it will affect Middle TN, but there`s at least some agreement we`ll get rain from it mid-week. Obviously, there`s much to be worked out as far as the details, but this becomes a good news-bad news scenario: yes, it`ll be cooler (upper 80s to 90 degrees), but it looks pretty wet. Hey, now that I think about it, maybe it`s a good news-good news scenario. The gardens will be happy. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Diurnal driven VFR 4-5 Kft ceilings CSV should dissipate by 06/02Z. Per best low level moisture polling, some MVFR/IFR fog induced vsbys potential SRB/CSV 06/08Z-06/13Z. Some passing high level cloudiness at times in a prevailing southwesterly flow pattern aloft. Prevailing surface winds generally NW & light per surface ridging pattern influences. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 71 91 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 67 87 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 65 86 63 88 / 20 10 10 20 Columbia 68 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 10 Cookeville 67 85 65 88 / 10 10 0 10 Jamestown 65 84 63 87 / 20 10 0 10 Lawrenceburg 68 90 66 92 / 10 0 0 10 Murfreesboro 69 92 67 93 / 10 0 0 10 Waverly 66 88 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Clements SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....JB Wright