973
FXUS64 KOHX 060655
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
155 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Quite a bit of cloudiness is still around this morning. The lower
level moisture is taking it`s time scouring out. Those lower to mid
60s dewpoints are still up in the IL and IN areas. So dewpoint
spreads are rather low this morning, particularly across the east.
Could still see some patchy fog development toward sunrise so will
watch for that.

For today, both a surface high and a broad upper level trough will
be the primary influence. Models still keep some of the high level
cloudiness around through the short term period but we will get some
of those lowering dewpoints in here by this afternoon. In fact, the
NBM yields lower 60s dewpoints through Sunday afternoon. It should
remain dry with cape values minimal and negative cape dominance
prevailing.

We will begin to see a change on Monday, so we must first discuss
Hurricane Beryl. He`s expected to make landfall along the TX coast
as a cat 1 on Monday, near or close to Corpus. To the north, mid and
upper level trough amplification will be under way with the axis
over the central US. Favorable cape to cap ratios will return for
our area and we`ll see some low pops return.

For the near term temps, it will be comparatively great when
considering the hideous heat and humidity that we`ve been enduring.
Lower 90s for highs, paired with lower 60s dewpoints will much more
tolerable. Nighttime lows will be near 70 with some 60s possible as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

In the extended forecast, The Euro has switched gears and is much
more aggressive with the upper trough amplification over the central
US. Therefore, it`s more in line with the gfs and brings Beryl`s
remains much closer to our neck of the woods by Wednesday. the
NBM/builder qpf totals have ticked upwards so we will need to watch
the trend as conditions could get progressively wetter for the
extended period. Otherwise, maximum pops in the likely category will
peak on Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, WPC does show 5-day precip
totals of 2 inches now reaching into our area. Thursday and Friday
will contain lower pops but chances will still remain as a uniform
southerly flow resides.

For the extended temps, not too bad as the expected moisture from
Beryl keeps our highs in the 85 to 90 degree range. Low temps will
generally hang out in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Overall we will see VFR conditions for the TAF period. Patchy fog
will be possible tonight mainly for the eastern terminals and may
bring periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. Light northerly winds under
5 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  69  94  73 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    88  67  90  69 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     86  63  89  67 /  10   0  10  10
Columbia       91  67  94  71 /   0   0   0  10
Cookeville     86  66  89  69 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      85  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   91  67  92  71 /   0   0  10  10
Murfreesboro   92  67  94  72 /   0   0   0  10
Waverly        88  67  91  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Mueller