287
FXUS63 KOAX 070730
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
230 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River from
  Brownville and and points downstream, and should continue to
  lower through the weekend.

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
  possible today.

- Temperatures gradually rising through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today...

Spotty showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to be
possible throughout the day, as a shortwave disturbance pivots
through the Central Plains. A cold front moving into northeast
Nebraska will likely bring an uptick in convection this
afternoon and evening. While forecast soundings depict up to
1000 to 2000 J/kg of instability available this afternoon, weak
shear will likely limit storm longevity. Overall, expect a few
stronger storms capable of gusty winds, small hail and brief
heavy downpours, but not anticipating widespread severe storms
at this time.

Monday and Beyond...

Precipitation chances shift off to our southeast Monday morning, as
a high pressure system builds over the southwestern CONUS.
Temperatures will gradually increase from the upper 70s/low 80s
today to the low 90s by Saturday and Sunday.

Moisture lingering in the region will help spur a few pulsey showers
and thunderstorms throughout the week. The lack of any significant
forcing mechanism will likely keep these storms very isolated and
relatively weak.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Generally light and variable winds are anticipated through the
TAF period with dry conditions forecast through about mid-day on
Sunday. Have left OFK dry with VCSH forecast through the entire
afternoon and evening at LNK and OMA. However, confidence is not
high for either spacial coverage and timing. Expect future TAF
issuance to narrow it down.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Nicolaisen