749
FXUS63 KOAX 072345
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
645 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated river levels linger on the Missouri River at Rulo and
  and points downstream, and should lower below Minor flood
  stage early Monday.

- Quarter-sized hail and a brief funnel are possible with storms
  through early evening north of a line from Albion to Tekamah
  through 9 PM.

- After a nice work week temperature-wise, dangerous heat
  becomes increasingly possible this Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Today:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows broad troughing in place
over much of the central CONUS, with ridging over both the East and
West Coasts. A recent surface analysis places a weak front draped
across north-central into northeast Nebraska, then northwest Iowa
into far northwestern Wisconsin. Pooled moisture along this boundary
has resulted in developing convection that is slowly meandering into
northeast Nebraska along that front. Withing the vicinity of the
weak boundary, there is some potential for the realization of the
low-level vorticity to be stretched by a strong enough storm, but
chances decrease as you move farther east from north-central to
northeast Nebraska due to higher cloud debris limiting daytime
heading and resultant lapse rates. Nonetheless, sufficient
instability despite limited shear exists for small to quarter-
sized hail primarily in northeast Nebraska this afternoon and
early evening. To the south of those storms, a few sprinkles are
possible but have looked decreasingly likely as we`ve moved
through the day, and any remaining chances for them diminishes
by 10 PM.

Monday and Beyond:

By Monday, models have shown high consistency in the upper pattern
for the upcoming week in the form a persistent jet streak extending
northeast from KS/MO. We`ll find ourselves with temperatures that go
from the low 80s Monday and Tuesday to the mid-to-upper 80s
Wednesday and Thursday. We won`t be completely scoured out by any
front during this period, and will have to be on the lookout for
afternoon pulse thunderstorms during this period, with our best
chances at seeing rain coming in the form of a weak shortwave
diving south out of South Dakota Wednesday (with the ECMWF being
the most bullish on this solution).

Looking towards the end of the period, Friday into next weekend will
likely see the stagnant mid/upper begin to break down with ridging
and increasing temperatures moving back in in the 90s. As it looks
right now, Sunday seems to have the highest chances of dangerous
heat, and could warrant some sort of warning/advisory but we are a
long way out for that at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across the area this
afternoon and evening and are anticipated to generally work west
to east before tapering off around sunset.

Otherwise, weak northwesterly winds of 5-10 knots are
anticipated through the remainder of the TAF period with VFR
cigs forecast for Monday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Nicolaisen