893
FXUS63 KOAX 051733
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be
  possible late Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures remain below or near seasonal normals through the
  period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Today through Saturday...

Skies remained  mostly clear overnight, with light winds slow to
clear out lingering smoke from the evening`s fireworks. Temperatures
remained pleasant, dropping only into the upper 50s and lower 60s by
2AM.

Quiet weather will persist across most of the region today, with
temperatures remaining slightly below normal, in the upper 70s
and low 80s. A weak shortwave dropping out of the Rockies,
through the northwesterly flow, could spark a few sparsely
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon. However,
forecast soundings depict a layer of dry air near the surface
that could keep much of the precip from reaching the ground.

Dry weather returns for Friday night through Saturday morning,
with high temperatures remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s.
The next shortwave arrives late Saturday afternoon and evening.
Moisture pooling in the vicinity of a warm front will bring the
chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms, with the
potential for another round of heavy rainfall. Very Large hail
and strong damaging winds will likely be the biggest threats,
given the steep lapse rates and strong shear. Therefore, we have
been included in a Slight Risk for Severe Storms and a Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Saturday.

Sunday through Next Week...

Precipitation chances continue Saturday night, through Sunday, and
into Monday as energy from the upper shortwave continues to traverse
the Central Plains. Temperatures remain below normal throughout the
weekend with highs staying in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Drier weather returns Tuesday, as a ridge builds over the western
CONUS. This will bump temperatures up a few degrees, but still at or
below normal, in the mid 80s. A few on and off shower and
thunderstorm chances creep back into the forecast for mid to late
next week, however, there are no significant signals for severe
storms at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Gusty winds out of the northwest at 20 kts are in place this
afternoon, and they join a very shallow but increasing cumulus
field at FL035 that will slowly increase southwesterly over the
course of the afternoon before dissipating overnight.
Overnight, winds will become nearly calm and switch
southwesterly lasting through the morning. Just beyond the TAF
period are chances for rain and storms moving in from the west
during the early afternoon hours tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Through July 4 in Omaha, we`ve had 8 days with 90 or greater
for afternoon Temperatures. This is just below the average of
about 10 days, but notably cooler than the previous 4 years when
values have ranged from 18 to 20 days each year from 2020
through 2023.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Petersen
CLIMATE...DeWald