117
FXUS63 KOAX 040449
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms could affect the region from this
  evening into Thursday afternoon. Some severe weather is
  possible with the primary hazards being isolated occurrences
  of large hail and/or damaging winds.

- Thunderstorm potential increases again Saturday afternoon into
  Saturday night with some severe weather appearing possible.

- Daytime temperatures to remain near or below seasonal normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Numerous thunderstorms have developed from western through north
central NE this afternoon, but well west of the forecast area.
These thunderstorms should begin to move toward northeast NE by
7pm and beyond. The storms could be strong and possibly severe
west of a line from Columbus to Wayne through midnight. By
midnight, there storms could be more widespread across portions
of eastern Nebraska, but they also tend to weaken as they
continue to push farther east. That first cluster of
showers/storms finally pushes east of the river 07-10z,
meanwhile, the next round of storms begins to move into
northeast NE which are more coincident with a weak frontal
boundary moving into the region. This second round of storms has
a lower chance of being severe, but also not zero. Overnight
lows in the lower to middle 60s. Rainfall with the storms
overnight could range from one half to one and one half inches
in northeast NE, but should not be enough to cause any
widespread flooding. Any firework displays could be impacted in
northeast Nebraska this evening, but elsewhere, south of that
Columbus/Wayne line should be fine for the 10 pm timeframe.

There should be numerous showers/thunderstorms Thursday morning
as the cold front continues to move through. This is typically
an unfavorable time for severe storms, but a storm or two could
still be strong north of I80, and east of Highway 77 with storm
chances lingering through early afternoon. By 3-4 pm, the front
will be mostly through the forecast area, with any additional
strong and possibly severe thunderstorm development mostly
likely expected across central IA and MO. High temperatures
Thursday afternoon behind the rains will range in the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

The remainder of Thursday evening/night should very pleasant, so
any Independence Day outdoor activities should be fine. Low
temperatures Thursday night very comfortable in the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

Friday the main upper low remains across the western Great
Lakes. We`ll have a continued northwesterly surface flow, and
overall should be a pretty decent day, but there will be a 20%
chance of showers for northeast NE closer to the periphery of
the upper low. Highs Friday will again range in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, generally a few degrees below normal.

The next chance for precipitation comes Saturday as another
subtle shortwave moves into the area out of the Rockies, which
should help the stall previously mentioned cold front lift back
north into the region. Storm chances increase again to 30-50%,
and along with that comes a chance for severe storms, and
additional heavy rainfall. High temperatures Saturday still
remain very comfortable with highs again the upper 70s to middle
80s.

Storm chances continue Sunday as another reinforcing wave moves
through the region. And highs still remain below normal in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

The bulk of the rains may be east of the area by Monday, with
northwesterly winds behind a weak frontal boundary. But again,
we could be on the periphery of the upper level trough, so
spotty showers can`t be ruled out. And temperatures again pretty
comfortable and below normal in the lower 80s.

Tuesday and Wednesday finally look generally dry with highs in
the lower to middle 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

The line of storms to our west has fallen apart quickly and
mostly showers remain with only a few isolated thunderstorms. It
now looks like thunderstorms seem highly unlikely to impact KLNK
and KOMA tonight. We will see a front move through later tonight
which will lead to a wind shift to northwesterly across eastern
Nebraska. We will see post-frontal showers move through Thursday
morning with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. Confidence
in thunderstorms impacting the terminals is too low at this time
to include in the TAFs, but could be added later with an
amendment. We may also see a period of MVFR cigs as the showers
move through. Once the showers clear around 18-19Z, expect
clearing skies and increasing winds out of the northwest. We`ll
see winds gust to 20-22 kt during the afternoon dropping back
down to around 5-8 kt by Thursday evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DeWald
AVIATION...McCoy