274
FXUS66 KMTR 052049
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
149 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1232 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Dangerous heat continues inland as high pressure prevails through
the middle of next week. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect
through Saturday night, and heat hazard highlights through
Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 147 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

The impressive dome of high pressure continues to slowly migrate to
the east, with near 600dm heights over NoCal, bringing record warmth
across western CONUS. Today`s temperatures will be some of the
highest yet for the heat wave, and many locations will see another
increase of 4-5 degrees tomorrow, especially inland. Similar to last
night, some low level stratus is expected to develop near the coast
later tonight and persist into early tomorrow morning, but should
mostly burn off by mid/late morning tomorrow. Mild overnight lows
will once again limit nighttime relief from the heat for inland
locations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Despite only marginally lower temperatures on Sunday, the cumulative
effects of the building heat will continue to be felt into the
beginning of next week. Along with the daytime highs, the overnight
lows begin to taper downward for the first half of next week but are
still 5-10 degrees above normal for inland locations. The strong
high becomes more amplified on Monday as it works east and south
while a weak trough begins to gradually bring heights down on the
back side of the ridge across our region. This will help to bring
temperatures down, but with highs well into the 90s and low 100s
across much of our area through the extended forecast, this won`t
necessarily bring an end to the heat wave and all its impacts.
Please continue to taking the following precautions to keep
yourself, family, friends and pets safe from the heat:

Heat is the number 1 weather related killer in the United States.
Unfortunately lives will be lost during this heat wave. Follow these
tips to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your animals.

-Stay inside in an air conditioned environment between 10am and 7pm.
-Suspend unnecessary outdoor activities during the extreme heat, but
if you must be outdoors, take frequent breaks in the shade  or AC
and drink cool water.
-Know the signs and symptoms of Heat Exhaustion vs. Heat Stroke!
Heat Stroke can be deadly if not treated immediately by a medical
professional. Call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from Heat
Stroke.
-Wear a lifejacket, swim near a lifeguard, and check conditions
before entering the water if going to a river or ocean to cool off.
Rivers and the ocean are extremely cold, and Cold Water Shock can
turn into paralysis and drowning if you are not careful.
-Use a cool and damp towel on your body if you do not have AC and
are feeling hot. Or, take a cool shower or bath.
-Do not leave kids or pets in a parked car.
-Ensure pets and livestock have access to shade and water.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1048 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Stratus near Monterey Bay has lifted, leaving the region with
clear skies over the terminals. With the continuation of the high
pressure system influence, expect VFR to prevail through the TAF
period for most terminals, except Monterey Bay. Winds build this
afternoon and will turn onshore, before returning to moderate to
light and variable overnight, with the exception of KSFO.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence that VFR will prevail through
the TAF period. Breezy and gusty NW/W winds will build this
afternoon up and will diminish to moderate overnight before a
return of breezy conditions Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the remainder of the day, but
with the shallow marine layer, IFR/LIFR conditions are anticipated
to return tonight for both KSNS and KMRY. Timing is a bit uncertain
but expect after 09Z. Clearing should occur near 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1048 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Light winds persist over much of the waters into the weekend.
Fresh to strong breeze developing over the southern waters near
Point Sur today through the weekend. Winds increase to a fresh
breeze over the rest of the outer waters by the beginning of next
week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 940 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the North Bay Interior
Mountains, East Bay Hills and Santa Cruz Mountains until 9 PM
Saturday. Red Flag Warnings are also in effect for the Santa Lucia
Mountains, San Benito County, and the Southern Salinas Valley until
9 PM Saturday as well

Despite easing surface winds, this prolonged heat wave will
continue to bring very low RH that will cure and dry the fuels.
ERC values are exceeding or approaching the max moving average for
a number of regions. Conditions are dangerous, and we urge
extreme caution. Please rethink the use of any fireworks this
year, including the safe and sane, or even those seemingly-
innocuous sparklers and pop-its. Perhaps consider not lighting
them off at all this year, and instead enjoy a professional
display in your community, or even on TV. Its not worth the risk.
Don`t Be the Spark!

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Beaches will be a popular destination over the Holiday and as one
of the few places to escape the oppressive inland temperatures.
Fortunately the waves are relatively low energy, but that doesn`t
alleviate all beach safety concerns. Ocean temperatures are in
the mid-50s. This cold water may catch some off-guard. Cold water
shock can set in very quickly. Wear a life jacket, dress
appropriately, limit time in the water, swim near a lifeguard and
follow their instructions.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ502>504-
     506-510-512>518.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ504-512-515>518.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ508-528-529.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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