Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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747 FXUS66 KMTR 051147 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 447 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1232 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Dangerous heat continues inland a high pressure prevails through the middle of next week. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through the weekend, and heat hazard highlights through Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1232 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A touch warmer today across inland areas, but much of the same across lower elevations and coastal areas. Day 4 of the heat wave now, and the next couple of days look like they`ll represent our secondary peak. Still no major synoptic driver of widespread offshore winds, so expect the marine layer to remain mostly in place. This is the reason many coastal areas have been largely spared from the record-breaking and deadly heat that we are seeing inland. Red Flag Warnings are still in effect into the weekend. As of writing, no major incidents that we are aware of. However, while monitoring overnight satellite, there have been dozens of small fires and flare ups from the Delta to the South Bay and into the Central Valley. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1232 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 I`ll start with the good news for those dealing with the heat. It looks like we`re getting over the peak this weekend, and there has been a consistent trend in "cooling off" late next week. The bad news? It`s going to warm up into Saturday, and we still have a few days of upper 90s and lower 100s to go. By Saturday, we should see temps in northern Napa/Sonoma and far eastern Contra Costa/Alameda approaching 110 once again, while temps in southern Monterey County may push the 115-118 mark. These locations are looking at temperatures 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of year. Cluster analysis still strongly supports a ridge pattern that promotes above average temperatures through the forecast period, but those temps are expected to be closer to 5-10 degrees above normal by the end of next week. At this time, we have chosen to not extended the heat highlights beyond their current expiration of Wednesday night. Heat is the number 1 weather related killer in the United States. Unfortunately lives will be lost during this heat wave. Follow these tips to protect yourself, your loved ones, and your animals. -Stay inside in an air conditioned environment between 10am and 7pm. -Suspend unnecessary outdoor activities during the extreme heat, but if you must be outdoors, take frequent breaks in the shade or AC and drink cool water. -Know the signs and symptoms of Heat Exhaustion vs. Heat Stroke! Heat Stroke can be deadly if not treated immediately by a medical professional. Call 911 if you suspect someone is suffering from Heat Stroke. -Wear a lifejacket, swim near a lifeguard, and check conditions before entering the water if going to a river or ocean to cool off. Rivers and the ocean are extremely cold, and Cold Water Shock can turn into paralysis and drowning if you are not careful. -Use a cool and damp towel on your body if you do not have AC and are feeling hot. Or, take a cool shower or bath. -Do not leave kids or pets in a parked car. -Ensure pets and livestock have access to shade and water. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 438 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR through the TAF period for all but the immediate coast and the Monterey Bay. High pressure aloft is causing a very shallow marine layer. The good news is this will limit the inland extent and low clouds should only affect the coastal terminals. The bad news is that the terminals that are affected by the marine layer will see very low ceilings in the 200 ft range and possible fog. These CIGS look to last into late Friday morning but erode as widespread moderate to breezy winds return. Winds reduce again into Friday evening, allowing the coastal clouds to return. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Moderate onshore winds will develop this afternoon. OAK has a small chance of developing a ceiling from wrap-around clouds streaming through the Golden Gate. Winds will decrease to a gentle breeze overnight. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Marine layer clouds are filling up the Monterey Bay and have spilled over both MRY and SNS. The shallow marine layer is bringing LIFR conditions with very low clouds and some mist/fog. These conditions are expected to improve during the day and return overnight, but the exact timing is hard to pin down. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 438 AM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Light winds persist over much of the waters into the weekend. Fresh to strong breeze developing over the southern waters near Point Sur today through the weekend. Winds increase to a fresh breeze over the rest of the outer waters by the beginning of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 819 PM PDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the Marin and Sonoma Coastal Range until 5 AM Friday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the North Bay Interior Mountains, East Bay Hills, and Santa Cruz Mountains until 9 PM Saturday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the Santa Lucia Mountains, San Benito County, and the Southern Salinas Valley from 9 AM Friday through 9 PM Saturday. Winds have calmed since yesterday, and are now gusting in the 15-25 mph range at higher elevations. Despite the wind improvement, this prolonged heat wave will continue to bring very low RH that will cure and dry the fuels. ERC values are exceeding or approaching the max moving average for a number of regions. Conditions are dangerous, and we urge extreme caution. Please rethink the use of any fireworks this year, including the safe and sane, or even those seemingly-innocuous sparklers and pop-its. Perhaps consider not lighting them off at all this year, and instead enjoy a professional display in your community, or even on TV. Its not worth the risk. Don`t Be the Spark! && .BEACHES... Issued at 1224 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Beaches will be a popular destination over the Holiday and as one of the few places to escape the oppressive inland temperatures. Fortunately the waves are relatively low energy, but that doesn`t alleviate all beach safety concerns. Ocean temperatures are in the mid-50s. This cold water may catch some off-guard. Cold water shock can set in very quickly. Wear a life jacket, dress appropriately, limit time in the water, swim near a lifeguard and follow their instructions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ006-506-508. Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ502>504- 506-510-512>518. Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ502- 503. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ504-512-515. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ508-528-529. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ516>518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Behringer Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea