961
FXUS06 KWBC 081902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Mon July 08 2024

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18 2024

There is some disagreement in the dynamical models forecast of the mid-level
height pattern across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) with the GEFS and Canadian
(CMCE) forecasting a broad ridge centered across the Plains with weak mid-level
troughing along the East and West Coasts resulting from reduced positive
anomalies. The ECENS maintains a stronger ridge across the western CONUS with
near-normal heights across the East, leading to weak troughing. However,
generally all the dynamical model tools forecast  positive 500-hPa height
anomalies for much of the CONUS during the 6-10 day period. In Alaska, there is
good agreement for negative 500-hPa height anomalies and troughing to continue
through the period. Hawaii is forecast to see near to slightly above-normal
500-hPa heights.

Above-normal temperatures are favored for nearly the entire CONUS and Hawaii
during the 6-10 day period. The strongest chances for above-normal temperatures
are in the Mid-Atlantic and southern Atlantic States with strong agreement
among the reforecast and raw ensemble guidance. A second maximum continues to
be forecast across the Northern Interior West into the Central Plains with
continued mid-level ridging the most likely solution during the period. There
is a weakness in above-normal temperature chances across parts of the Great
Lakes, where the ECENS introduces chances for near-normal temperatures during
the period and in the Desert Southwest where monsoon moisture may limit diurnal
heating reducing chances for above-normal temperatures. Along the West Coast,
chances are diminished. Strong heating in the interior west may help to
increase chances for onshore winds reducing chances for above-normal
temperatures along the Coast. In Alaska, below-normal temperatures continue to
be forecast with deep mid-level troughing persisting into the period. In
Hawaii, above-normal temperatures are forecast consistent with dynamical tools.

Above-normal precipitation is slightly favored across portions of the eastern
CONUS during the 6-10 day period. The ECENS reforecast has stronger chances for
above-normal precipitation relative to the GEFS, likely due to the placement of
the strongest positive mid-level height anomalies. A broad area of near-normal
is favored across the Plains and Lower-Mississippi Valley with generally weak
and mixed signals from the dynamical tools. A slight tilt towards below-normal
is favored in parts of the Great Basin, Northern Rockies, and the northern High
Plains. Meanwhile, the best signals for above-normal precipitation are favored
in the Four-Corners region with continued monsoon moisture in the region. In
Alaska, above-normal is favored across much of the state with mid-level
troughing helping to induce unsettled weather. Near-normal precipitation is
favored in Hawaii, due to weak and opposite signals among the tools.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 8, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above-Average, 4 out of 5. Fair
agreement among the dynamical height and temperature tools is offset by a weak
summer precipitation pattern.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2024

As in the 6-10 day period, there remains some disagreement between the strength
and location of a broad mid-level ridge across the CONUS. The ECENS maintains
the stronger ridge across the western CONUS while the GEFS and CMCE are
building the strongest anomalies across the Upper-Midwest and northern Plains.
Despite these differences, generally broad ridging is forecast across the CONUS
with weakly positive anomalies forecast across the southern tier and stronger
anomalies across the northern CONUS. In Alaska, a very different pattern is
being forecast relative to the 6-10 day period with near-normal heights now
favored across much of the state. The CMCE is even bringing in weak positive
anomalies to the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula. In Hawaii, near to
slight positive 500-hPa heights are again forecast.

Above-normal temperatures continued to be favored across most of the CONUS
during week-2. The strongest chances remain forecast for the Northern Rockies
and northern High Plains beneath positive 500-hPa height anomalies. A secondary
maximum is forecast across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southeastern
CONUS. As in the 6-10 day period, there continues to be some disagreement among
the reforecast tools from the ECENS, forecasting near-normal temperature
chances, and the GEFS, maintaining strong above-normal temperature chances,
regarding the temperature forecast across the eastern CONUS. However, the ECENS
raw forecast continues to favor slight chances for above-normal temperatures in
the region. Therefore, probabilities for above-normal temperatures are reduced
but still lean above-normal where there are the largest disagreements. In the
Southwest, chances for above-normal temperatures are again reduced relative to
areas further north, as monsoon moisture continues to be favored across the
region, thus limiting diurnal heating potential. In Alaska, below-normal
temperatures remain forecast consistent with guidance and near-normal mid-level
heights forecast. In Hawaii, above-normal temperatures are slightly favored.

The precipitation signals in the guidance continue to be weak and mixed across
many portions of the country. The strongest chances for above-normal
precipitation are in portions of the Desert Southwest with continued monsoon
moisture flowing into the region. A second area of slightly enhanced
precipitation is forecast for portions of the Carolinas and Georgia where raw
model tools are in agreement for a stalled front to help promote additional
precipitation. Elsewhere across the southern and eastern CONUS, a slight tilt
towards above-normal precipitation is generally favored. The precipitation type
is most likely to be daily summer-time thunderstorms and some of the
precipitation may be more localized. In the north-central CONUS, near to
slightly below-normal precipitation is favored beneath the stronger positive
500-hPa height anomalies. In Alaska, above-normal precipitation is generally
forecast consistent with raw model guidance and near-normal mid-level heights.
In Hawaii, above-normal precipitation is favored.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 10% of Today`s 0z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 30% of Today`s 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered
on Day 11, 40% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20%
of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5. Some
disagreement in the mid-level height pattern between the ECENS and GEFS reduces
confidence offset by continued warm conditions across much of the CONUS.

FORECASTER: Ryan Bolt

Notes:


Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued.


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below


The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).
 Probability of N is always < 40%.


In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no
precipitation.


The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in
the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
July 18.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
19860721 - 19790717 - 20060623 - 19670701 - 20000626


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20060623 - 20060628 - 19860721 - 19670630 - 19790716


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 14 - 18 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    B     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    N
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 16 - 22 2024

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    N
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    N     S DAKOTA    A    N
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    A
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    N     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    N
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    N
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    N     NEW HAMP    A    N     MAINE       A    N
MASS        A    N     CONN        A    N     RHODE IS    A    N
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$