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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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526 FXUS63 KMQT 031139 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 739 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong westerly winds this afternoon with gusts of 20-25 mph, and up to 35 mph across the Keweenaw. - Diurnally driven pop-up showers/thunderstorms (20-30% chance) will be possible this afternoon/evening. - Low chance (~25%) of afternoon showers/storms across interior western Upper Michigan on Independence Day. - Widespread moderate rain expected early Friday into Saturday. Some thunder possible. - While not a washout...scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue this weekend...especially Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Current radar mosaic this morning is most active across the eastern half of Upper Mighigan where rain showers are lingering in association with a shortwave. Elsewhere, the western half has been dry all night, and this drier air will eventually overspread the eastern half as well through the course of the morning. Nonetheless, there could be enough instability to support some diurnally driven/pop-up showers/thunderstorms this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon are expected to soar into the low to mid 80s across much of the interior, except for upper 70s along the spine of the Keweenaw. And, it will be another breezy day as mixing supports widespread westerly wind gusts of 20-25 mph, up to 35 mph across the Keweenaw. Look for improvement by evening with decoupling. Tonight, ridging will continue to strengthen over the forecast area, but cannot rule out some lingering showers/thunderstorms that could form and linger into the evening across the eastern third of the UP. Outside of that, though, it will be a dry night with overnight lows generally in the 50s, low 60s to the south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Guidance continues to present a consistent picture of the coming pattern, with the main item of interest being a slow moving system through the central Plains and Upper Great Lakes late Thursday into the weekend. Another system looks to swing through late this weekend. Starting off on Thursday, Independence Day, a meso high over Lake Superior looks to largely keep the region dry. However, questions surrounding the placement of an inverted surface trough and diurnal destabilization are still present, and some showers and thunderstorms by afternoon and evening still look possible. CAM runs have dialed this potential back some from the largely medium range guidance that went into previous forecast packages, but there are still some models that bring light rain across the south or west that could impact afternoon/evening outdoor plans. Expect daytime highs to into the 70s with some low 80s being possible south-central and interior west. Upstream, a mid-upper level low skating through the north-central Plains will continue its eastward journey into the Upper Great Lakes by Friday morning. Its then expected to lift northeast into Ontario through Saturday morning. At the surface, a low will deepen on Friday as it slowly moves through Wisconsin, reaching northern Lower Michigan Friday night. For the past few days, guidance has consistently tracked in this fashion, which positions our forecast area on the northern flank of the low and within its deformation/inverted trough axis. Recent GEFS and EC ensemble surface low clustering continues this, with the broad clustering present being mostly attributed to timing differences among the ensemble members. The effect of this relative position will mean widespread moderate rainfall will be possible through the day Friday and into early Saturday. Recent EC probability of exceeding 0.5 inches in our forecast area is largely 50-80%. This is a little higher then its GEFS counterpart. Something of note is the deterministic spread vs ensemble mean spread is noticeable. For example, the 0z GFS is suggesting 2-3 inches of rain across the west while the ensemble mean struggles to reach 0.5 inches. This suggests that a good bit of timing and convective influences still need to be resolved as this system moves into the region. The rain should end west to east through the morning hours on Saturday, with weak and brief ridging spreading over the area through the day. This should result in a dry day for the west and a dry afternoon/evening in the east. A weakening shortwave moving through the Dakotas/Minnesota will follow by Sunday. This may support another round of showers/thunderstorms Sunday into early Monday. If a surface low develops along the transiting cold front to our south, as the EC is suggesting, this may extend through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 738 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Other than some lingering MVFR conditions at SAW through mid- morning, all TAF sites have returned to VFR levels. And, SAW will also follow over the next hour or two. The main impact this TAF period will be the strong westerly winds, which will be increasing above the 12 kt threshold with gusts up to 25 kts around late morning/early afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Winds continue to settle this morning, falling to 20kts or less before southwest winds near 25kts develop in the western portions of Lake Superior, mainly between Isle Royale and the Keweenaw. Light winds of 20kts or less settle in tonight and persist into Friday. At this point, a low moving through the Upper Great Lakes may support winds increasing to near 20-25kts Friday evening into Saturday. Winds lighten after this through the remainder of the weekend to 20kts or below. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...JTP AVIATION...Thompson MARINE...JTP