319
FXUS63 KMPX 082348
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated afternoon showers & thunderstorms through Wednesday.

- Hot & humid this weekend with heat indices around 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon with the
most widespread coverage across western Wisconsin & coverage
gradually becoming more isolated as one goes west across
Minnesota. Deep shear is practically non-existent, but 1000-1500
J/kg of CAPE means a few of the strongest storms could contain
small hail & brief gusty winds. Rainfall amounts could reach
around an inch in some spots across western Wisconsin where
multiple thunderstorms could hit the same locations, otherwise
brief downpours could result in a quick 0.10-0.25" of rain.

More of the same weather continues through Wednesday as an Upper
Level low sits over the Great Lakes and provides enough upper
level forcing for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The
precipitation chances begin to diminish Thursday & Friday as
the upper level low moves off to the east & heights rise in its
wake - leading to a gradual warming trend into the upper 80s
through week.

The real warm temperatures come this weekend, as strong ridging
over the southwest CONUS begins to build into the central
plains & Upper Midwest. NBM median temperatures are generally in
the upper 80s to low 90s Saturday & Sunday, with the 90th
percentile highlighting chances for some mid to upper 90s
across western Minnesota. Dew point temperatures will also be on
the rise, especially on Sunday, which could result in heat
indices approaching 100 degrees and may warrant the need for
Heat Advisories this weekend. A complication in the temperature
forecast will be the chance for thunderstorms & remnant cloud
cover during the day, with the weekend chance for precipitation
looking best Saturday morning as a weak shortwave moves through
the region.

Looking ahead into next week, the ridge axis shifts more to the
west which will keep us in generally warmer temperatures, but
could place the region under another "ring of fire" pattern
where multiple thunderstorm complexes track along the northern
periphery of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

-TSRA activity is on a downward trend with VFR conditions and
 calm to light and variable winds through the remainder of the
 period. There is a possibility of patchy dense fog developing
 out at RNH/EAU and a lesser chance at AXN/STC by early Tuesday
 morning. Winds will be light, but primarily out of the west or
 northwest after 15Z Tuesday. Late afternoon thunderstorms
 appear possible across portions of the area, but confidence is
 low in coverage and location to include in current TAF.

KMSP...no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, chc pm -TS. Wind NE 5kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BPH