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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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779 FXUS63 KMPX 140542 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1242 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid this weekend with the potential for several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through Monday afternoon. - Slight Risk (2 of 5) of Severe Weather through this evening and overnight. - Looking ahead, cooler, drier pattern Tuesday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Today and Tonight - Satellite imagery shows multiple vorticity maxes rotating through zonal westerly flow over the Upper Midwest this afternoon. Radar imagery shows the ongoing showers and isolated strong thunderstorms in eastern Minnesota pushing into west- central Wisconsin, with this trend continuing for the next couple of hours. Most other areas remain dry into the evening hours today. A surface trough dragging through North Dakota is expected to initiate a round of strong to scattered severe thunderstorms in northwest and north-central Minnesota later this afternoon. Uncertainty in exact location remains, but the high- res model guidance continues to suggest some sort of congealing of discrete storms into another MCS later tonight as the complex moves out of the Brainerd Lakes region of north- central Minnesota and into central and east- central Minnesota. This places the best severe storm chances still near and north of the Interstate 94 corridor. The primary hazard from any MCS complex would be damaging winds, although initial storms may briefly support large hail and a potential for a tornado or two before becoming an outflow dominant MCS. The storm complex moves into west- central Wisconsin closer to the 11 PM to 1 AM hour early tonight. Heavy rain will accompany these storms given the high PW values associated with the hot and humid airmass. However, the mid- level flow should be fast enough to limit flooding concerns. Sunday - The heat will continue on Sunday as high temperatures rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s with Tds in the low to mid 70s. The Twin Cities metro Heat Advisory continues through Sunday evening. Attention turns to the threat of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center keeps a Slight Risk over west- central and central Minnesota. Elsewhere, a Marginal (1 of 5) risk exists with the primary hazard of damaging winds. Sunday will be another day with strong instability present across the Upper Midwest given the 70+ degree dew point temperatures. Current guidance keeps a strong cap in the mid-levels tomorrow so the previous drier trend noted this morning keeps hold in the latest forecast. Another complex drops southward from the Northern Plains Sunday night so expect continued severe thunderstorm chances into the end of this weekend, especially for those overnight camping. Sunday night will be another warm night with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Monday - Temperatures decrease slightly on Monday with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, although high dew points linger. An incoming cold front Monday afternoon along an axis of high precipitable water could promote scattered strong thunderstorms within an axis of moderate instability upwards of 1500 J/kg. The disorganized shear creates a lot of uncertainty though in the storm mode, but with a general east-southeasterly mean flow. Isolated strong thunderstorms may form into a severe potential if that instability axis lines up with the cold front and the higher-end mid-level lapse rates dont move too far off the primary forcing. The best chances are in the Twin Cities Metro to Mankato and southeastward where the SPC highlights a Slight Risk () and the rest of the CWA has chances of isolated storms. Tuesday through Friday - A northern stream cold front from central Canada dives southward Monday to bring a cooler & drier air mass for the remainder of the week. Forecast high temperatures are in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Chances of precipitation decrease later this week as well under this northerly flow, but end-of-week shower chances do return Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Clusters of thunderstorms currently stretch from east-central MN into western WI. These storms will move east-southeast affecting MSP, RNH, EAU, and possibly MKT over the next couple of hours. Visibilities will reduce to at least MVFR while northwesterly winds could gust up to 30-40 knots during any storms. After the storms, cigs look to drop to MVFR in west-central WI with some patchy fog also developing during early Sunday morning. Afterwards, VFR conditions will prevail area wide for the rest of the period. KMSP...A line of strong thunderstorms will reach MSP by 06Z and exit by 08Z. IFR visibilities are likely with winds gusting to at least 40 knots. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR, CHC -TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts. TUE...VFR, Wind NW 5-15 kts. WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Carver- Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-Washington. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...CTG