276
FXUS63 KMPX 142325
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
625 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible again late tonight into Monday afternoon.
  Damaging wind is the primary threat, followed by hail. The
  risk for tornadoes is low.

- Looking ahead, cooler and drier weather remains on track for this
  coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...Early afternoon satellite imagery and
surface obs showed mostly clear skies with light northerly
winds across the region. Temperatures were seasonably warm, in
the mid to upper 80s, but heat indices were were in the lower to
mid 90s. Expect dry and summer-like weather the rest of the
evening before the next system arrives later tonight.

Later tonight, storms will fire across the Dakotas, and then
move into western Minnesota after midnight. These storms should
be on the downward trend, but then are expected to intensify or
redevelop on Monday as the overall system moves toward the Ohio
River Valley. As it stands now, most of the area will see the
storms as their weakest point. We anticipate the storms to
produce severe weather across the Dakotas, with a lingering
severe wind threat as they approach western Minnesota early
Monday morning.

A few different scenarios could play out on Monday. The most
likely scenario is that storms will weaken as they move into
central Minnesota, and then strengthen as they approach
southeast Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. If these storms
develop a cold pool and move faster then the severe threat could
continue from the Dakotas, across the region Monday morning.
This faster solution would limit the potential for additional
storms Monday afternoon. If the storms are slower, then the
chance for storm development Monday afternoon increases, and so
does the risk for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center
has an Enhanced Risk to the southeast where confidence is higher
in severe weather. Meanwhile for our area, we`re kind of in the
lull between the weakening storms tonight, and the developing
storms tomorrow. This puts us in a lower-confidence forecast, so
please continue to check back for updates.

Damaging wind would be the primary threat, with hail a secondary
threat. The risk for tornadoes is lower given the unfavorable
low level shear profile. Heavy rain is also likely with these
storms, but they should be moving fast enough to limit any
flooding threat.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...No significant changes from the
previous forecast. Northwest wind will bring cooler air across
the region, and upper level subsidence will lead to surface high
pressure and overall a drier weather pattern for the upcoming
week. Humidity will be lower as well, with dewpoints in the 50s
on Tuesday, with a few 40s possible on Wednesday. Highs will be
in the mid 70s, with a slow warming trend back toward the 80s
for later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Outside of some diurnal cumulus lingering into the evening clear
to mostly clear VFR skies this evening and most of tonight. Late
tonight into Monday morning a line of thunderstorms will track
across Minnesota and Wisconsin. How widespread these storms
will be and at what exact time they arrive is still uncertain.
So opted for PROB30 groups at each terminal when the storms are
most likely to occur. Once storms form, later TAFs should be
able to have the needed confidence to upgrade to TEMPO or
prevailing. After the storms pass VFR will return with a lower,
but still possible chance of storms for eastern MN and western
WI terminals. In advance of the storms clear skies will allow
for some fog to form, most likely at the Wisconsin terminals.

KMSP... Continued VFR and light winds through the evening and
into tonight. Any fog should remain in the river valleys and not
at the air field. Main concern continues to be the chance for
another round of thunderstorms Monday morning. These storms are
trending later and could now impact the Monday morning rush.
There is also a chance for some late Monday storms, but chances
remain low and dependent on how the morning plays out. The
later or stronger the morning storms are the less likely
another round occurs later in the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR, Wind NW 5-15 kts.
WED...VFR, Wind N 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...NDC