588
FXUS63 KMPX 151722
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather possible this morning and Monday afternoon.
  Damaging wind is the primary threat, followed by hail. The
  risk for tornadoes is low.

- Cooler and drier weather remains on track for the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Current mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of thunderstorms
currently over eastern ND. This activity is traveling southeast with
an additional band of thunderstorms developing along a zone of
frontogenesis downstream. Using the HRRR, as it seems to have the
best handle on the current precip, this activity will reach western
MN around 4 AM and travel through southern MN by mid-morning. The
frontogenesis band of storms shouldn`t be overly strong, but one or
two supercells from the original cluster will follow in their wake.
The most likely track of the supercells looks to be a line from MOX
to BDH to MKT and the primary hazards associated with these storms
will be large hail and damaging winds. To the east, garden variety
thunderstorms and showers should spread across eastern MN and into
western WI. Thus, expect at least a wet morning for most of the
region before a dry period follows by early this afternoon. Once the
rain exits, temperatures should climb into the low to mid 80s.
However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible
later this afternoon, mainly in southeastern MN and west-central WI,
as a cold front sags south. CAMs and the Storm Prediction Center
aren`t too optimistic about severe weather with this round, but a
stray damaging wind gust or large hailstone can`t be ruled out. This
precip will exit to our southeast by this evening.

Following the cold front, a much milder air mass and strong surface
high pressure will settle over the Upper Midwest. This will set us
up for a very comfortable and dry stretch of weather Monday night
through at least Friday. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will
generally be in the 70s, as 80s don`t look to make a return until
next weekend. A few upper 40s could even occur in our rural areas
Wednesday night, highlighting the coolness of this mid-summer air
mass. Precipitation chances will remain very low until next weekend
when long-range forecast models start to show weak impulses within
the north-northwesterly upper-level flow passing through our region.
However, the subtleness of these features combined with their spread
of timing and placement between models provides low forecast
confidence of precip next weekend at this time. We are likely
heading into our first prolonged stretch of dry weather after today.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This morning`s convection has ended and we are left with some
scattered light rain across the area. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail, but our Wisconsin sites may see brief
periods of MVFR cigs/vis with some additional afternoon showers.
Winds have been the other challenge for today with things being
slow to shift around to the W/NW. Based on surface obs, the
surface front is just getting into western Minnesota along the
North Dakota border. Touched up the timing of the wind shift for
all sites for everyone to be westerly/northwesterly by late this
afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will move in with light
northwesterly winds through the remainder of the period.

KMSP...Decided to keep a VCSH mention through this afternoon. Winds
are still expected to turn more westerly by 20z with northwest
winds by 00z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts.
FRI...VFR, Wind, S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Dye