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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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280 FXUS63 KMPX 151952 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 252 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers continue in southern MN this afternoon, drying out a bit overnight before isolated showers are possible again tomorrow. - Quiet and pleasant the rest of the week with highs in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Showers are ongoing in southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin with occasional strikes of lightning as a few updrafts have attempted to get started, but are quickly being cut off due to northwesterly flow aloft. Satellite shows the coldest cloud tops over a line from roughly Marshall MN to Mankato, with convection expected to begin shortly south of the MPX CWA in western Iowa where clear skies have persisted for much of the day. We do not expect any strong storms over us for the rest of today, with showers all we can expect as they dwindle later in the day. The upper level low which has produced much of the forcing for the last few days will continue to slowly move eastwards, but not before one more day of potential showers tomorrow. Northwesterly flow aloft on the southwest side of the upper level low will coincide with just enough lingering moisture to cause a few isolated showers tomorrow afternoon with much of the CAM guidance suggesting isolated shower coverage. Right now, we do not expect any storms with a lack of instability and shear, with most of the area ending up dry. Heading into the rest of the week, surface high pressure begins to set up with northerly flow aloft on the western side of the departing feature strong enough to keep skies clear and temperatures relatively cool through the coming week. High temperatures should settle in the 70s for most of the week and trend towards 80s by the weekend as surface high pressure slides out and a broad surface low meanders towards the area. Ensemble guidance shows quite a healthy spread of precipitation potential beginning Friday and lasting through next weekend with scattered showers and storms looking most likely in western Minnesota on Saturday or Sunday. Confidence is pretty low at this time in regards to stronger storms or major impacts, so stay tuned to the forecast during the quiet weather week as we approach next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 This morning`s convection has ended and we are left with some scattered light rain across the area. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but our Wisconsin sites may see brief periods of MVFR cigs/vis with some additional afternoon showers. Winds have been the other challenge for today with things being slow to shift around to the W/NW. Based on surface obs, the surface front is just getting into western Minnesota along the North Dakota border. Touched up the timing of the wind shift for all sites for everyone to be westerly/northwesterly by late this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure will move in with light northwesterly winds through the remainder of the period. KMSP...Decided to keep a VCSH mention through this afternoon. Winds are still expected to turn more westerly by 20z with northwest winds by 00z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR, Wind N 5-10 kts. THU...VFR, Wind VRB 0-5 kts. FRI...VFR, Wind, S 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...Dye