415
FXUS63 KMPX 201724
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1224 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of isolated showers & thunderstorms continue
  through this weekend. Slow-moving storms mean localized
  rainfall nearing an inch.

- Diurnally-driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms are
  likely through midweek, with the best chances for widespread
  rain coming Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Current surface observations showing multiple sites reporting
areas of fog early this morning. Temperatures currently in the
mid to upper 60s with calm winds. Areas of fog are expected to
mix out by mid-morning. As for today`s forecast, a slow moving
lobe of vorticity aloft coupled with a surface low that will
advance across southwestern MN. Enough support is in place this
morning to generate a few isolated showers and potentially a few
rumbles of thunder given ~300 J/kg of MUCAPE in RAP forecast
soundings. The more favorable environment for this morning`s
rainfall is across the I-90 corridor. However, the western
periphery of a cold front is currently draped over NE MN and N
WI. this frontal boundary is progged to sag southward over the
upper Great Lakes region this evening. As this occurs, the lob
of remnant vorticity may encourage redevelopment for convection
across much of MN and western WI this afternoon and evening.
Sunday looks to be a repeat of today in terms of precip
potential given QPF still looking to range between a couple of
tenths to a half inch with a few isolated ares across southern
MN exceeding a half inch. In summary, it will be best to
consider bringing the umbrella if you have outdoor activities
planned.

By the beginning of next week, the cold front departs to our west
however a stagnant summertime airmass will remain in place. This
will allow for daily isolated chances of shower and thunderstorms
each afternoon through midweek. Tuesday into Wednesday continue to
look favorable for more likely bouts of rain. Timing for this
shortwave will be key with regards to storm intensity. Should the
system move through earlier in the afternoon or evening, heavier
rainfall and strong thunderstorms will grow increasingly possible.
Temperatures for the week trend gradually upward into the low
to mid 80s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Isolated thunderstorms remain a possibility thru this evening,
mainly over MN, so have mostly kept the short-term forecast the
same. Opted not to go with TEMPOs due to still high uncertainty
remaining in placement of precipitation. Southern MN should see
their precip this afternoon while AXN will be more towards this
evening. Actually, removed mention of precip at STC due to
forecast soundings and CAMs showing minimal lift. Areas of fog
should develop tonight through daybreak, as abundant low-level
moisture and calm winds will be in place. Visibility should
deteriorate to at least IFR, with southeastern MN and west-
central WI looking most likely to see visibility reduce to
VLIFR. Fog will burn off after sunrise with VFR/MVFR cigs
remaining. Winds will remain variable to calm for the entire
period.

KMSP...Kept PROB30 mention of -TSRA this afternoon, with MVFR
conditions most likely if precip were to occur. Areas of fog
will develop tonight with periodic visibility reductions to IFR
until sunrise. MVFR cigs could last into late Sunday morning
before improving to VFR. However, another round of -TSRA is
possible Sunday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Chc PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind variable less than 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind W to NW 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...CTG