092
FXUS63 KMPX 162316
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
616 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and pleasant the rest of the week with highs in the 70s.

- Highs in the 80s along with airmass thunderstorm chances
  return this weekend into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

h5 analysis this afternoon shows an upper low over northwest
Ontario, with a positively tilted trough extending southwest from it
into the Dakotas. Lift from mid and upper level speed maxes along
this trough, in addition to steep low level lapse rates from daytime
heating has been just enough to generate some isolated showers.
Forecast soundings show a warm nose around around h6 that is
effectively capping how deep this convection goes, so the ceiling
for what showers will be able to do today is pretty low, with the
vast majority of our area remaining dry. This isolated shower
activity will sag south with the trough through the afternoon, with
activity quickly diminishing with the setting sun.

For the rest of the week, we`ll have some truly spectacular weather,
with mild temperatures and low humidity, especially for mid-late
July standards. The culprit will be a slow moving pattern dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trough. We`ll be in the subsidence
region to the west of the trough. This will allow a surface high to
setup shop over us for a few days. This high will be coming from
north central Canada, hence the forecast with highs 5-10 degrees
below normal with very comfortable dewpoints (40s and 50s) for the
rest of the week, enjoy it!

For the weekend into next week, the change in the upper level
pattern is subtle, but enough to lead to some changes for us. The
western ridge will more or less remain in place, but the eastern
trough will depart the Great Lakes to the northeast. This will move
the subsidence region out of the upper MS Valley, which will allow
the surface high to start washing out. This change will allow for a
more southerly low level flow to develop, which will allow highs to
get back up into the 80s, with dewpoints getting back into the 60s.
Remove the upper subsidence and its associated inversion and weak
mid-level lapse rates and you have an environment supportive of the
return of diurnal shower chances, which is more or less what the NBM
continues to show with it`s 20-40% PoPs that make their return on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 616 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

SCT CU will dissipate this evening, then redevelop late
Wednesday morning. Winds will remain northwest at 10 kts or
less through the period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Borghoff