![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
377 FXUS63 KMPX 181135 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures through middle of next week. Chances for isolated showers & thunderstorms return this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 It`s another quiet morning thanks to a 1020+ mb high pressure overhead. High pressure will remain across Minnesota and Wisconsin through Friday, which will lead to dry weather conditions with seasonable temperatures and low humidity. This dry northerly flow combined with calm winds has allowed radiative cooling to drop temps into the upper 40s over western Wisconsin and mid 50s across central Minnesota. As we continue to cool down ahead of sunrise some patchy fog is possible where temps have reached the dewpoints, but widespread impacts to visibility are not expected. High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s today with plenty of sunshine and light winds turning southerly this afternoon. Humidity won`t be an issue with dew points in the 50s so an excellent day to get outdoors. Friday through next Wednesday will feature high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Friday remains comfortable with low RHs before the high pressure shifts off to the east and lower heights aloft settle over the central CONUS this weekend. This will open the door for daily precip chances thanks to the diurnally-driven thundershowers this weekend that`ll continue into middle of next week. Each afternoon will feature 30-40 PoPs with no signal for heavy rain or severe thunderstorms, but more typical summertime isolated thunderstorms capable of brief downpours. Dew points will raise into the 60s over the weekend and it`ll feel more like mid- summer. By mid-week, guidance trends hint at the potential for a more organized shortwave moving through the Upper Midwest. This may support a more organized and widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms for the end of the forecast period. However, sub- seasonal guidance has been hinting that the second "half" of meteorological summer would trend toward a pattern shift that favors seasonably drier and warmer weather. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Diurnal mid- level cumulus clouds likely by midday, then dissipating this evening. Light/variable winds this morning will become southerly this afternoon and remain there through tonight, speeds under 10kts. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5 kts. SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind variable 5 kts. MON...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind N to NE 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BPH AVIATION...JPC